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Not Every FL GOP Loss Is As It Appears – HotAir

It’s kind of interesting watching the dynamics play out on a national stage right now, and – even though I finally busted outta this joint for a little break – I was still watching the returns from Iowa up at Brother Bingley’s house. My governor vs the 800 pound gorilla and whoever the mincing miss was fluttering off to the side.

I was delighted DeSantis bested Nikki Haley, of course bummed that he didn’t prevail against the former president, but heartened that Trump didn’t blow him out of the water. Trump’s numbers on righteous sympathy alone could have really been monstrous with everything Dems are doing to him.

But I’m also realistic about the national contest. You’ve got a mega-complex, larger than life, bombastic former president with a tremendous record of both accomplishment and opprobrium that I don’t think we’ll ever see equaled again (and that might be a blessing). On the other side, you’ve got a guy who doesn’t run his mouth, gets things done, who will never, ever be flashy, and whom no one will generate AI portraits of dressed as George Washington in prayer at Valley Forge.

Usually GOP politicians are as milquetoast and ubiquitous as the individual Rice Krispies in a bowl – you can’t tell one from the other. The personality and governance style contrast this year is clear and really kinda fun.

Besides the Monday nail-biting and caucus post-mortems, there was an under-the-radar Florida state house special election being held yesterday. FL House District 35 was up for grabs after the sitting representative – a Republican – resigned to accept the presidency of a college.

Narrowly, the Democrat prevailed.

Local liberal news rejoiced and DeSantis dumping commenced.

Newsweek like to had an…um…”moment” let’s say.

Democrats Cause ‘Earthquake’ in Florida With Shock Election Victory

Florida Democrat Tom Keen flipped District 35 in the state house on Tuesday, beating Republican rival Erika Booth by 11,390 votes to 10,800.

Booth conceded defeat in the special election which was caused by Fred Hawkins, formerly the Republican representative for District 35, stepping down from the seat in order to become president of South Florida State College.

The victory is a major boost for Florida Democrats who suffered a dramatic blow during the November 2022 midterm elections, which left Republicans with a supermajority in both the state house and senate. Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, branded the win an “earthquake,” noting the GOP had won the seat in 2022.

“This victory in Florida is an earthquake… Rep-elect Keen’s victory delivers a blow to Florida Republicans—this was a Republican seat that DeSantis won in 2022 and they should’ve had it in the bag,” Williams said.

They sure were loving piling on the DeSantis devil incarnate, especially after Iowa, weren’t they?

Lucky thing no one was really looking at it, either, because it wasn’t going to stand up as this great victory against the reviled Ron when they did.

And what got me digging into it more was a tweet this morning along with David’s terrific piece about Jamie Dimon warning Dems to back off the MAGA mashing. David said one thing which really stuck with me:

…Dimon is warning his fellow Democrats that they are totally misreading the mood of the country, the political and economic risks the country faces, and in particular, the reason why average Americans support Donald Trump. It’s not because they are deplorable but because, well, Trump was actually right on a lot of stuff.

More than that, average Americans keep getting the message that the Democrats hate them, and it turns out that directing scorn at voters is not a great way to woo them into voting for you.

That got me wondering how a seat could – or would – flip, and it turns out David’s sentiments are totally applicable in this case in relation to America’s mood, DeSantis and FL. Dems are treading very dangerous waters and a victory dance on what they think is RDS’ corpse might be a tad premature.

In 2022, when former FL HD35 Rep Fred Hawkins won that seat, the district was on the West Coast of FL and ran rabidly Republican. For instance, there are twice as many GOP in the smallish Hernando County part of the district as Dems. Mr. Hawkins had dang well better win, no? Had he lost in that year of DeSantis’ historic sweep of FL, that would have truly been an earthquake of epic proportion.

The day after that election, Nov 8, 2022, FL HD35 no longer looked like that. The new redistricting lines went into effect, and moved the entire district across the state, almost to the East Coast, and dropped it into?

Screencap Balletopedia

Democratically blue Osceola and Orange Counties. Even with the recent gains by Republicans, those two counties still hold about 135K Dem advantage over the GOP.

It’s not remotely the old HD35.

And here’s where more of David’s truism comes in: Even with that voter registration advantage and, quite frankly, a Republican candidate who was on the stolen-election Trump train in a Democratic district?

Erika Booth (R) only lost to Tom Keen (D – Progressive) by 590 votes out of 22,190 cast.

And again – in a Democratic district.


No wonder they have to play this up.

It’s actually a disaster. They should have wiped the floor with Booth. She’s every bogeyman POTATUS and Dems trot out for regular thrashings, and yet? They could barely manage to squeak by on the greasy hairs of their verminous little chins.

Real life is the answer.

Misreading the mood of what real life is like for people now is the answer.

Democrats do not and will not get the message. Since they own the press, they also don’t have to own that fact.

This special election seat is up again this fall for a regular term.

There’s a lot of “real life” time in between now and November – we’ll have to see who’s listening.

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