NOW we are in the second week of January, MPs have returned to Westminster, and we are only a matter of days away from Donald Trump’s second inauguration as President of the United States. It is safe to say that 2025 will pick up where 2024 left off, with political fireworks and unpredictability inevitable wherever you look.
Already in the first few days of the year, we have seen Elon Musk weighing in on the UK’s domestic issues, notably the failure by a series of governments to tackle ‘grooming’ gangs with the gravity required. While the rising influence of Musk in British political discourse may not appear to be a groundbreaking development in the wider political landscape, it certainly feels emblematic of the way we are heading this year.
The US and Britain have two very different leaders with almost polar opposite views on the future of their respective nations. I am certain this will lead to rising tensions in the year ahead and there will be only one loser: Britain.
Sir Keir Starmer has and always will be closely aligned with the European project. At a time when the US is moving in a certain direction, it is dangerous for the UK to side with a failing bloc at the expense of a closer relationship with the biggest economic and military powerhouse on the planet.
As the UK slowly but surely realigns itself undemocratically with the European Union, the widening gulf between the prosperity of the two sides of the Atlantic will become increasingly apparent. It is inevitable that under a Trump presidency, one focused solely on the US and its interest, the economy will grow; at the same time Starmer will continue to take the UK into a black hole of economic woe.
Recession in the UK will follow, as the US continues to grow at the expense of Europe through the deployment of deregulation, tax cuts and business incentives. These are moves that the US has been calling out for and so has Europe, but that only Donald Trump is bold enough to enact. This year will see that divergence play out in a very obvious manner and I expect that it will happen more quickly than most think.
Beyond the economy, one of the defining aspects of 2025 will be the war in Ukraine, which has been prolonged by Western leaders through funding and weapons. However we should expect this support to dry up fairly quickly. A swift unwinding of the conflict is a key priority for Trump and even Zelensky admits that the incoming President has the ability to broker peace in the region.
Concessions on territory will be key to ending the conflict and given Trump’s reputation and previously stated pledge to end the war within 24 hours of taking office, it is likely that Russia will keep some, if not all, of the territory it has gained. Given the catastrophic failing of all Western leaders to dampen tensions, Starmer, Macron, Trudeau, Scholz and the rest of their cabal will be left utterly humiliated by their impotence.
Speaking of humiliation, six months after Starmer entered Downing Street, his gaffes and inexcusable policy platform show no sign of slowing down. Despite this, will 2025 be the year that Starmer takes control of the country? The answer to that is obviously No, but it may be the year that he decides enough is enough within his own party.
Despite his lack of ability as a politician, he is certainly one at heart and he will throw anyone else under the bus to retain power. By the end of the year, will Rachel Reeves and Angela Rayner still sit in cabinet? Or will further blunders and failures lead to Starmer having to axe his allies? I think the smart money will be on the latter, given the state of the UK economy and the continuing slide in his party’s reputation.
2025 will see a monumental divergence between the US and the rest of the Western world. As the UK and Europe align ever closer, Trump’s first months will prove humiliating for those established leaders who have wrecked economies and prolonged geopolitical crises.
