Most Presidents use their second terms to lay down their legacy, establishing what they wish to be remembered for.
Trump, perhaps because in his first term he did not know how to control the political landscape, was rather diverted. He was too busy learning the political ropes unable to lay down the foundations for a legacy. Trump is also not an oligarch so failed to get help early on from the elite which stymied his ambitions. He however has learned how to swing the elite, he has maintained the desire to be president and now gained control and is moving at speed. He recognised he has just over three years left to leave “President Trump” as a mark. He is shaking things up something cruel, and he is moving on a number of fronts at speed.
Let’s examine some of these and see how serious he is being and how much is just being mischievous and making life interesting for people he doesn’t like.
Canada. Trump has given the impression that he wishes Canada to become America’s 51st state. Cue wailing and gnashing of teeth. There is no real possibility of this ever happening at least within Trump’s premiership. Nope, this is about irritating Trudeau and the Canadian left wing whilst seeking to reduce costs for aluminium. Its working well though if my FB feed is anything to go on.
However, Trump’s aggression is paying off as meetings are underway regarding oh, aluminium imports etc. No surprises there then.
Greenland. This one is far more interesting. Trump has suggested purchasing Greenland from Denmark. Despite much indignation and faux affront from an indignant Denmark, he may be onto something here. You see the Danes have a history here and Trump was not the first to suggest such. Denmark has a long history of selling off bits of their empire quite happily in the past – provided of course the price was right. Serampore in India was sold in 1839 to the British, and Tranquebar and Fredenknagore both also in India followed in 1845. They even sold items to the Americans with the Danish West Indies in 1917. These last are nowadays known as the United States Virgin Isles.
And if Trump did achieve a purchase of Greenland, it would be largest in American history bigger even than the Louisiana purchase! Such a purchase and enormous expansion of territory would guarantee Trump his place in American history, a figure in every schoolbook, so in this he is absolutely serious. It would be his signature accomplishment. Grief he might even get onto the Mount Rushmore wall of fame!.
Greenland has long been seen as essential to the security of the United States and attempts have been made to purchase the island in 1867, 1910, 1946, 1955, 2019 and now again with Donald Trump. So, there is a history here.
Greenland is seen as an autonomous territory it will decide not Copenhagen.
On Trumps side of the argument there are huge, and ongoing costs to Denmark keeping it on. Could Denmark ever defend Greenland? At present they have a plane, seven patrol boats, the royal yacht and six dog sledge teams and that sadly is about it. It is safe to say they have not invested in Greenlandic defense.
Greenland lives on handouts. America could double or more the subsidies available to Greenlanders in a trice.
Yes, there are minerals, rare earths and other treasures coveted by China and others, but can Denmark get these out the ground? Probably not, nor indeed perhaps stop China gaining access?
The Americans effectively provide the military cover for Greenland to allow Denmark to be able to hold its authority over the territory and, interestingly, to spend less on its own defence.
How much to persuade the Greenlanders to vote to join? Make them an offer they can’t refuse? There aren’t many of them they could have golden pensions without America missing a heart beat.
Compact of Free association perhaps? Or Tariffs to focus attention? This one has legs.
Now Panama. Or more exactly the Panama Canal. President Jimmy Carter in 1977 foolishly sold it to Panama, all 51 miles of it. And all the strategic value along with it.
Today almost fifty years on the canal’s become old, knackered, and worn out. It’s too small and tight for modern shipping needs, and the water supply which it needs to top up the locks keeps running out and needs upgrading. Actually, everything needs modernising which of course is why China is showing such an interest and Trump is aggrieved. Panama presently would seem to be looking to have the US Corp of Engineers come over to re-engineer it, but seems to think it can get the work done by the US and still have the US pay as well! This is just cheek. And Trump is resisting. Again, sanctions are being used to start a process of negotiation which would give the US a slice of the action at the very least.
Here Trump is looking for concessions. Not outright takeover perhaps, though the threat is worth keeping behind your back.
Deals, shares, partial ownership, joint enterprises, oh you go and name it. Just no Chinese and Donald keeps the whip hand! But hey a revamped Panama Canal would give Panama a very good deal and a secure line of income. It’s just negotiation, just business!
With Trump remember it’s always business.
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