Image: Democrat turnout in the October 7 primary, in which state Rep. Aftyn Behn was selected as the nominee, came close to Republican turnout. Image Credit: John Partipilo/Tennessee Lookout
By Sam Stockard [Tennessee Lookout -CC BY-NC-ND 4.0] –
As an off-cycle special election, turnout in the special election primary for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District race was down significantly compared to the 2024 General Election.
Across both parties’ primaries, around 67,000 votes were cast last month compared to almost 330,000 in 2024, when now-retired U.S. Rep. Mark Green, a Clarksville Republican, beat Democrat Megan Barry by a nearly 20-percentage point margin.
Democrats had a primary turnout of 31,000 that nearly matched that of Republicans with 36,000. The Democrat Party hasn’t won Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District in over 40 years.
Republican former General Services Commissioner Matt Van Epps will face Democrat state Rep. Aftyn Behn in the general election to replace Green on Dec. 2. The Cook Political Report classifies the district 7 seat as a “Solid Republican,” but internal polling by Behn’s campaign shows she trails 52% to 44%.
Republican turnout in the primary was down by more than 80% in many Nashville precincts but also in much of Clarksville and its surrounding rural areas, according to precinct data analyzed by the Lookout. In terms of raw votes, Republicans saw turnout drop by almost 2,000 voters in some precincts in Cheatham and Williamson counties.
For several election cycles, Democrats in the 7th district have received a large share of their support from the two urban centers of Clarksville and Nashville. During the 2025 special election, almost no voters in rural counties like Hickman and Wayne voted for Democrats, and in Nashville, the drop-off in voter turnout wasn’t nearly as steep for the party as it was for Republicans in their strongholds.
What’s the focus of the race?
In acknowledgement that he can’t cruise to victory, Van Epps’ campaign has attacked Behn over her support for abortion and the protests she participated in during Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids in Nashville in May.
Republicans hold a 4-seat majority in the U.S. House, meaning the 7th district can’t change the party in power, but after a strong 2025 election showing in the governor’s races for Virginia and New Jersey, national Democrats turned to the Tennessee race as they are looking for another avenue to prove that they’re beating or closing the margins in areas where Republicans typically dominate.
Democrat National Committee Chair Ken Martin was in Middle Tennessee on Saturday to canvass with Behn, the first public sign of support from the national party.
During the primary, Van Epps raised significantly more money than his money his Republican opponents and benefited from nearly $2 million in outside political action committee (PAC) spending. These independent groups touted Van Epps’s military career, labeling him a “MAGA Warrior,” while a pro-school voucher group attacked his top opponent for not supporting Trump enough in 2016.
Behn raised around $150,000, narrowly winning her primary through a voter-turnout strategy. Her message to Democrats was that she had the best shot at winning the special election because of her progressive messaging on campaign finance reform, and taxing the wealthy could boost turnout.
Early voting for the general election starts on Nov. 12.
