Image Credit: Matt Van Epps for Congress & Aftyn for Congress / Facebook & TN SOS
The Tennessee Conservative [By Olivia Lupia] –
A recent poll conducted by Emerson College shows Democrat Aftyn Behn and Republican Matt Van Epps in a tight race going into the final leg of the special election for Congressional District 7, invigorating the Democrat voter base and putting more pressure on the GOP to secure victory in a historically safe red district.
Per the poll results, Trump-endorsed Van Epps is holding a slight edge with 48% support while progressive Democrat Behn is showing 46% support amongst likely voters or those who have already voted. Two percent of voters reportedly plan to cast their ballot for one of three third-party candidates while 5% remain undecided.
Executive director of Emerson College Polling believes the race will ultimately come down to who decides to show up at the polls on election day, especially as special election turnout numbers are typically low.
“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day and who stays home,” he said. “Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%. Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, 64% of whom support her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, to 61% of those over 70.”
When the undecided voters were asked which candidate they are leaning towards, Van Epps also maintains a small lead, with 49% saying they favor him versus Behn’s 47%. The poll was conducted Nov. 22-Nov.24, surveying 600 likely voters or those who had already voted, and the margin of error was 3.9 percentage points.
The District 7 special election has made Tennessee a battleground state, garnering national attention as the GOP works to maintain its slim House majority. Millions from outside or dark money PACs have poured into the race, with Democrats working to split the Republican vote by propping up independent candidate John Thorp, who has been billed as a more conservative choice than Van Epps.
Celebrity and political endorsements have been given to both candidates, like musician Kid Rock who urged voters to “keep Tennessee conservative”, while former Vice President Kamala Harris made an appearance at a Democrat Get Out the Vote event, though she did not give an outright endorsement of Behn.
Most Republican Tennessee politicians including U.S. Senators Marsha Blackburn and Bill Hagerty, Reps. Andy Ogles and Tim Burchett, and numerous TN Reps. and Senators are encouraging fellow Republicans to vote for Van Epps while Behn is drawing support from activist groups such as Progressive Democrats of America and the more radical members of the Democrat party.
Even if Van Epps wins the seat, internal Democrat surveys say a close margin could reflect momentum from recent socialist and progressive victories in other states and bolster their chances of flipping some seats blue in 2026 and beyond.
“I have a very progressive and engaged district, and I had the highest total voter turnout of any Democratic state representative in the 2024 cycle,” noted Behn. “I know how to mobilize Democrats, and if I can mobilize the rest of Davidson County, we can win this.”
While Behn’s campaign has mainly focused on healthcare, affordable housing, and opposing tariffs, Republicans have zeroed in on resurfaced footage and interviews where Behn displays seemingly unstable behavior and espouses far-left beliefs like defunding the police, abolishing prisons, and creating a transgender bill of rights.
But none of that seems to be deterring Democrat voters. And Behn confidently believes, “This race is winnable- not someday, not theoretically, but right now. Voters are showing up because they’re hungry for leadership that will fight for affordable healthcare and hold corporate power accountable.”
At the conclusion of early voting on Wednesday of last week, 84,356 people had voted, with nearly 25% of those votes coming out of Davidson County, a Democrat stronghold.
Montgomery County records the next highest number of votes at 19,110, about 1,800 less than Davidson, and it is unclear which direction the county will swing given there is a mix of local Democrat and Republican representation, making the county more purple than either solidly red or blue.
The last chance for voters in District 7 to participate in the race will be Election Day, Tuesday, Dec. 2, when it will be determined if the GOP can rally their base to clinch a victory.
About the Author: Olivia Lupia is a political refugee from Colorado who now calls Tennessee home. A proud follower of Christ, she views all political happenings through a Biblical lens and aims to utilize her knowledge and experience to educate and equip others. Olivia is an outspoken conservative who has run for local office, managed campaigns, and been highly involved with state & local GOPs, state legislatures, and other grassroots organizations and movements. Olivia can be reached at olivia@tennesseeconservativenews.com.
