AFTER the General Election, some rudimentary analysis suggested the remains of the Conservative Parliamentary Party (MPs) was split about 50-50 between the ‘centrists’ and those labelled as the right wing of the party; plus a sizable group of ‘straws in the wind’ who would go with whatever group was on top. That is why, when the party’s leadership election came round, Kemi seemed the Goldilocks choice to unite the party – neither too left nor too right.
Yet still the party needed a direction, and after a year or so, Kemi began to shift ever so slightly to the right. Why? Because that was her only chance of winning back the voters they had already lost. Polling showed the ‘lost Conservatives’ had either gone to Reform or stayed at home.
With Kemi appointed as leader, an informal deal was done. MPs would back her unequivocally for two years, providing she could stabilise the existing base at around 20 per cent and come up with a showstopper manifesto within 24 months. The idea was simple – turn the Conservative Party into the ‘thinking man’s Reform’. While Farage would have his plans scrawled on the back of a fag packet, the Conservatives would do some serious homework. When combined with the muscle memory of actually being in government, they would become the credible choice for the new right.
Unfortunately, Kemi quickly fell through 20 per cent, and her pledge to have no policies for two years made her opposition stance laughably weak. Meanwhile, as Reform’s base and funding has grown, their policy agenda has become more credible, intellectual and professional.
But it is the drip-drip of defections that will likely blow Kemi’s super-manifesto dreams to bits. More than Robert Jenrick’s high profile, this is why his defection really matters. The Parliamentary party’s nominal split 50-50 between its left and right is going awry. The right flank has lost two of its most vocal and cogent voices in Danny Kruger and Jenrick, along with 20 former Tory MPs, many more councillors, thousands of activists and former members. Jenrick’s departure could mark the tipping point not for Reform but for the beleaguered Tories where the ‘wets’ are now in the majority both in number and profile.
Kemi alone, without a ‘right wing’ stiffening her sinews, is too weak to put forward the bold and seriously conservative manifesto that some might have hoped for. That policy agenda would need boilerplate commitments on immigration, the ECHR, fulfilling Brexit, reclaiming sovereignty, tackling crime, Net Zero, reviving free speech, liberty, reclaiming sovereignty, rolling back the state and reforming the quangocracy, civil service and judiciary. And cutting taxation.
Yet she must now know that any such ambitious plan will be dead on arrival. The wets won’t wear it. Within hours, the Tugendhats, Ellwoods and Cleverlys will be shooting it out of the sky, and she will be powerless to stop them. Furthermore, the fact that Kemi was so eager to let go of the party’s most potent ‘anti-immigration’ advocate, without any attempt to persuade him to stay, suggests she may never have been committed to a truly conservative revival.
That leaves the Conservative Party utterly paralysed. In truth, the writing has been on the wall for some time. In February 2025, I met with Danny Kruger and Victoria Hewson (Kemi’s policy chief)) for lunch. Danny was really eager and enthusiastic, as was I. All three of us were full of engaging policy ideas for the local council elections and clearly animated by the prospect.
Yet when the elections came, no policies had been drawn up. Indeed, it was Reform who merrily helped themselves to our GB PAC’s policy platter rather than the Conservatives. In fact, there was no campaign at all – no door-knocking or big names hitting the streets. Why was there any shock when the results came in? CCHQ simply threw the elections. Incredibly, the man leading the catastrophic local campaign – Kevin Hollinrake – was rewarded with the party chairmanship, proving that blind loyalty to Kemi trumps any semblance of competence.
Then we got another signal of the internal dysfunction within the parliamentary party. In February, the Conservative Party put forward a private member’s bill proposing deportations for criminals and benefits claimants with Indefinite Leave to Remain. At last, it looked like the party was getting serious. But not for long. First a ‘Tory spokesperson’ announced they’d rowed back on the plans. Then Chris Philp announced they hadn’t. Surely the Shadow Home Secretary should know? Next up Katie Lam talked up the plans to the Sunday Times until finally Kemi herself slapped her down and U-turned. I wondered if they had tabled their own bill before reading it.
The Conservatives have not even got around to producing any official policy document, and already they have descended into the familiar tizz of U-turns on U-turns. This wish list appears to be as far as they have got. There is no follow up detail on how they would implement any of it. One can only imagine the tug-of-war taking place behind the scenes, with reforming or radical ideas being sieved out. The conclusion has to be that this is not a party that can deliver decisive and carefully considered policy, let alone make amends on immigration.
I know Kruger well. He is a genuinely principled politician. After the General Election, he threw his heart and soul into resuscitating the moribund Conservative Party, delivering some of the best speeches Parliament has seen in decades, like this one to an empty Chamber.
He was not just not supported. He was knocked back at every turn. By the time he gave up and joined Reform he was exhausted.
It is an open secret that Robert Jenrick was blocked by CCHQ from media appearances and producing more of his highly popular videos, because Kemi was sick of being outshone. It seems that Kemi’s love of Thatcherite free competition doesn’t extend as far as her own life and political career is concerned.
The truth is, both Kruger and Jenrick tried everything and only gave up after being thwarted repeatedly by the party they were desperate to save.
As the pace of defections by Conservatives who want reform goes from a drip-drip to a flood, so the paralysis will spread through what remains of the party. With each defection the remaining rump will tilt further to the left until we are left with a septuagenarian Nick Clegg tribute band, whose promise to the electorate is: ‘We won’t be quite as bad as Labour.’
With Jenrick’s departure the party has passed its existential tipping point. And if it hasn’t, anyone with a plan to save the Conservative Party – however reckless, bold or implausible – should try it now before Kemi kills it off completely.
