Will Donald Trump put “boots on the ground” in Iran? When running for president, Trump criticized the invasion of Iraq and subsequent occupation, and pledged never to go back to the “nation-building” strategies of previous administrations. After more than a week of heavy bombing and naval action in the war against Iran, though, the need for direct action to achieve some discrete objectives has the White House considering its options, according to Axios’s Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo.
One problem under discussion with Israel is the need to secure Iran’s highly enriched uranium. The two countries are reportedly considering the insertion of special-ops forces to retrieve and exfiltrate the material:
The U.S. and Israel have discussed sending special forces into Iran to secure its stockpile of highly enriched uranium at a later stage of the war, according to four sources with knowledge of the discussions.
Why it matters: Preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon is one of President Trump’s stated war objectives. The regime’s 450 kilograms of 60%-enriched uranium — convertible to weapons grade within weeks — is one key to that goal.
The big picture: Any operation to seize the material would likely require U.S. or Israeli troops on Iranian soil, navigating heavily fortified underground facilities in the middle of a war.
How would this even work? The Iranians have split the storage of their nuclear material between a couple of sites, Isfahan and Fordow, both of which have been heavily damaged. The war in June buried the Fordow storage, for all practical purposes, and Isfahan has been repeatedly targeted in both that war and in the current hostilities. Not only would the US and Israel have to dig through the wreckage to get to the enriched uranium, they would have to haul it to the surface and then put it on a plane or helicopters – all while exercising proper containment to avoid exposure to the highly radioactive material. That would take an enormous amount of infrastructure and far too much time to keep secure, if it can even be done at all. That might be a tall order even in a cease-fire and with non-interference from Iranian forces.
The better option is already handy: Enforce a no-go zone with devastating air power, and keep burying the sites with more bombing. The Iranians have no air defenses, and we have plenty of surveillance options: satellites, drones, observers if necessary. There is little need to risk troops in these areas for a very low chance of successfully removing all or even some of the material on hand.
Another option makes a lot more sense:
The intrigue: Beyond the uranium, administration officials tell Axios there has also been discussion of seizing Kharg Island, a strategic terminal responsible for roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports.
The Iranians need Kharg Island more than they need their nuclear material – a lot more, in fact, if Iran ever wants to recover and rebuild after this war. The island is lightly populated, with roughly 8200 people on it before the war, and has no ability to be reinforced by Iran after the collapse of its navy and air force. Undoubtedly the Iranians have tried to fortify and garrison the island over the last year in anticipation of these hostilities, but the US and Israel could use their air power and naval forces to reduce the island’s defenses to the point where a ground force (of significant size, nevertheless) could take control of the island and its oil facilities.
Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu still hope for a regime change to a friendlier government at the end of the war, so they have been careful to avoid striking Iran’s oil infrastructure until now, so they would prefer to secure rather than destroy the Kharg Island facilities. The Israeli strike on oil storage facilities in Tehran last night did signal that those gloves may come off to some extent. However, that facility served the regime’s internal needs and supplied fuel to the IRGC and Basij forces that keep the local population suppressed. Kharg Island serves the export capacities that will be critically needed by any successor regime. If the US seizes and holds Kharg, it becomes a powerful chip in any negotiations at the end of hostilities. And while the US holds it, the US can then also dictate who gains access to Iranian exports.
Trump may have avoided this option to keep Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting oil shipments. With Iran threatening shipping and strangling traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the gloves can come off for Kharg.
One option for a special-forces ops still has not received any attention, speculative or otherwise: Bushehr. The reactor at Bushehr is a major strategic concern and has been ever since it came online. The nuclear power plant is not far from Kharg Island, coincidentally, right on the coast of the Persian Gulf, making it a more accessible target than the storage facilities in Isfahan and Fordow. At the moment, only one reactor is active, although the Russians planned to activate two more reactors this year. Around 3,000 people work at Bushehr, and that doesn’t include the IRGC and regular army forces that protect it. It would not be easy to seize Bushehr and force a shutdown, but if the Iranians refuse to back down, the US and Israel might consider the risk worth the eventual reward. Those risks are high, however, so it would likely be a last-ditch effort to deny Iran any excuse for nuclear development in the future.
Kharg Island would be the most effective use of ground troops, easily the most defensible, and would provide the greatest and most immediate advantages. After that, though, the US and Israel can assess the success and plan for other, more complicated missions in the interior.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
Help us report the truth about the Trump administration’s decisive actions to keep Americans safe and bring peace to the world. Join Hot Air VIP and use promo code FIGHT to get 60% off your membership!
