Maybe you can teach old dogs new tricks. Or perhaps Iran forced Hamas to choose which benefactor matters more to them in the long run, especially given the fragile and desperate straits in which their putative patrons in Tehran have put themselves. Fatwa around and find out, as one of our commenters quipped last night.
Hamas has its own problems these days, having been forced into surrendering power in Gaza after two years of utter destruction as a result of the deeply stupid war they themselves launched on October 7. Iran attempted to rescue them on multiple occasions by attacking Israel directly, another deeply stupid decision by the now deceased Supreme Leader. Wisdom has continued to escape the mullahs and the military junta in Tehran as they have expanded the war to their neighbors, including Qatar … which has been sheltering Hamas leadership for more than a decade and likely providing a big chunk of their funding.
This morning, Hamas told Iran to knock it off, clearly under pressure from Doha:
Hamas on Saturday called on Iran to avoid targeting neighboring Gulf countries while also voicing support for the Islamic Republic’s right to retaliate against Israel.
In a statement, the terror group condemned what it called “American-Zionist aggression” against Iran and said Tehran has the right to respond “by all available means” in accordance with international law. But it also urged “the brothers in Iran” to refrain from striking nearby states, a notable appeal amid fears of broader regional escalation.
Er … since when has Hamas been afraid of a ‘regional escalation’? That’s precisely what Hamas and Yahya Sinwar wanted with their “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation on October 7, 2023. In fact, that’s what they intended to ignite, expecting Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah to combine forces and finally annihilate Israel. Sinwar reportedly cowboyed that operation, but Hezbollah dutifully joined after a few weeks, and Iran supplied money and arms for the effort. Syria steered clear but allowed Iran to supply Hezbollah for the war.
It all went Tango Uniform after that. Israel crippled Hezbollah with its Grim Beeper operation, and further losses in Beirut and elsewhere wound up collapsing Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship in Syria. That cut Hezbollah off from Iran, which kept attacking Israel directly. Hamas kept expecting the West to force Israel into a cease-fire on Hamas’ terms in Gaza, only to belatedly discover that October 7 had changed everything.
Now Iran’s on the ropes and attacking Qatar, and Hamas is getting squeezed into thinking that “regional escalation” is actually a really bad strategy when facing a far superior opponent who no longer fears using their power:
Speaking to The Jerusalem Post earlier this week, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said Qatar was furious with Hamas for refusing to condemn Iranian strikes on its territory. Qatar offered Hamas leadership a safe haven for years, leading the IDF to target Hamas leaders in Doha in September last year.
“You can already see the changes happening now,” Sa’ar said. “Iran’s inability to financially support Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis is reshaping the situation in many places across the Middle East.”
Hamas may or may not have internalized that lesson, but Hezbollah is still playing out its old strategy of the “unified battlefield.” Hamas at least recognizes that Iran is no longer the ascendant strong horse in this scenario, but it has chosen to use Lebanon as a platform again to provide a second front for the failing mullahs of Tehran. Axios’ Barak Ravid reports that Hezbollah will learn a painful lesson again about antagonizing a superior force, and this time the lesson might be terminal:
Israel is planning to significantly expand its ground operation in Lebanon, aiming to seize the entire area south of the Litani River and dismantle Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, Israeli and U.S. officials say.
Why it matters: This could be the largest Israeli ground invasion of its northern neighbor since 2006, dragging Lebanon to the epicenter of the escalating war with Iran.
“We are going to do what we did in Gaza,” a senior Israeli official said, referring to the flattening of buildings Israel says Hezbollah uses to store weapons and launch attacks. …
Until days ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government was still trying to contain the Lebanon escalation in order to stay focused on Iran, according to Israeli officials.
That calculus changed Wednesday when Hezbollah launched more than 200 missiles in a massive coordinated attack with Iran, which fired dozens of its own.
The US wants Israel to negotiate with Lebanon to settle the matter, but Israel has waited 40 years for Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. They agreed to do so after the 2006 war, and the UN deployed peacekeepers in its UNIFIL mission that ended up sitting idly while Hezbollah fortified its sub-Litani positions. The November 2024 cease-fire with Hezbollah again required Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. Again, Lebanon claims it can’t do it, so … what is there to discuss?
Now, Lebanon either can’t or won’t act while Hezbollah coordinates missile actions with Iran during open warfare with Israel. Looks like it’s time for another lesson about the foolishness of provoking superior forces, along with one for the Aoun government about the risks of inaction while terrorist networks operate in your sovereign territory. These wars are all coming to an end this time, unlike the last 47 years of kicking cans down the road. Anyone who hasn’t already figured that out pretty much deserves the hard lesson they are about to receive.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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