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Drink Iran’s Milkshake, Mr. President – HotAir

March 17, 2026
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Drink Iran's Milkshake, Mr. President – HotAir
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How absurdly lopsided is the state of play in the war the United States and Israel are finishing with the Islamic Republic of Iran, a tri-part lie as the late Christopher Hitchens used to say? 

The world has yet to be introduced to the new Supreme Leader of Iran, Cardboard Mojtaba Khamenei. There was an announcement by an unnamed Iranian official that Cardboard Mojtaba would be making remarks in a few days, once they can work out some minor security details. Don’t hold your breath.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has cheated AI slop death once again, appearing in a couple of selfie videos, showing he’s very much alive and does not possess bonus digits on either of his hands. 

President Donald Trump, meanwhile, held multiple press briefings – one at the Trump-Kennedy Center, which was a pretty wild and raucous affair, and then another availability in the Oval Office with Vice-President J.D. Vance. Trump was asked to comment on the rumored sexual orientation of the new Supreme Leader, which would be a complicating factor to a fanatical Shia theocracy he purportedly leads that hangs people who share his rumored same sex desires, not that there’s anything wrong with that. The President, never at a loss for words, was nevertheless stumped at the surreal turn of events. 





At the Oval Office, the President said the war could end right now and he’d be okay with how things worked out, but it will continue for at least another week. But then he said the war could end fairly soon. That’s going to confuse the ladies on the panel of The View, so allow me to look at the news from the past few days, put on my analyst hat, and give you a plausible scenario that could lead to the grand finale of the most evil regime currently on Earth.

Over the weekend, I wrote a long piece about the importance of the strikes on Kharg Island, and how that was, for all intents and purposes, the checkmate move on Iran by Donald Trump. Let’s dive into that a little bit more. 

Three major pipelines feed Kharg Island from Southwestern Iran. Two of them originate from oil fields in Ahvaz and Marun, about 50 miles apart from each other in Khuzestan Province. The third is from a neighboring province just to the east, Boyer-Ahmad, home to the Gachsaran oil field. Combined, these three oil fields generate 75% or better of Iran’s oil production. 

So what do we know about these two provinces? Quite a bit, as it turns out, over the last couple of weeks. 

Khuzestan Province is very tribal. They are Shia Arab, not Persian, but share, at least up to now, the same strain of Islam the regime represents. How have they responded to open hostilities since March 1st? The tribal leaders released a statement on March 10th. 

 

Our principles and goals: 

1. Regime Change We call for the complete transition away from the Islamic Republic toward a secular democratic government based on the will of the people and universal human rights. 

2. Preservation of Iran’s Territorial Integrity We emphasize national unity and the preservation of Iran’s territorial integrity. We reject any calls for separatism that threaten the security and peace of the country. 

3. Cultural Identity and Diversity We will protect language, traditions, and Arab identity, recognizing it as part of the broader cultural richness of Iran. In a future Iran, the rights of all ethnic groups and languages must be guaranteed within the framework of national unity. 

4. Support for Transitional Leadership We support the role of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as a symbol of national cooperation and leadership capable of forming a broad national coalition to help guide the country through this crisis. 

5. Social and Economic Justice Khuzestan must regain its rights and benefit from its resources for the sake of freedom and prosperity for its people. This can only be achieved through national governance that respects all citizens. 

We call on all Arab brothers and sisters and all Iranian communities to stand together and support one another in this historic moment to reclaim the destiny of Iran. 

Long live Iran





They’re not buying what Cardboard Mojtaba & the Military Junta are selling. At all. 

Next door, it’s a more varied mix of people in Boyer-Ahmad, but a plurality are the Lurs. Historically, at least for the last few decades, the Lurs have been far more loyal to the regime. In fact, ranks of the IRGC and Basij forces are often filled by people from this region of the country. While they have not offered a formal statement, anything like the Khuzestanis have, back when the protests began all over Iran in earnest at the beginning of the year, there were large-scale demonstrations in this province. All is not well there if you’re a regime loyalist. There is dissent in the populace. Starvation and lack of resources due to the regime’s inability to run the country’s finances will do that. There was a pro-regime rally on the 13th, but it’s very safe to say that the region is mixed and fragmented at best. 

In order not to turn this column into the opening 400 pages of a Tom Clancy novel, let me begin to weave a possible scenario for what could lie ahead.

When Brian Kilmeade of Fox News asked Donald Trump about whether a strike on Kharg Island made sense last Friday morning, the President gave him a Trump tattoo. He was angry Kilmeade would ask such a question. By nighfall, there was nothing left of Kharg except the pipeline and a hose with a nozzle on it at the end of the dock. 

Yesterday afternoon, another reporter asked the President in the Oval Office about ground forces coming, and Trump reacted in very much the same way. 

It’s the same rhetoric. If the past is prologue, occupying Kharg Island is very much being considered, if not already being planned. That’s halfway to drinking the milkshake. The only thing missing is the straws across the room to the three oil fields in the two provinces. If the Americans have not begun to talk to the tribal leaders in Khuzestan who already want regime change and signaled they’d be willing to play ball, I’d be amazed. Maybe not at the level of Secretary of State Marco Rubio or Steve Witkoff, but it would not surprise me if some of John Ratcliffe’s people at CIA were working the room among both those camps. Reportedly, exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has talked to the Khuzestanis as well. That would be a big endorsement he brings to the table if the rest of the cards fall just right, allowing for his return to set up a provisional government on the way to real elections for the first time. 

The Lurs would be a trickier mission, but one would have to assume that they’re being talked to by the Americans to see if a deal can be reached to cut off Tehran and have guaranteed security of both ends of the pipeline for a while and a more beneficial revenue split until the theocracy falls. 

Until Friday, IRGC forces controlled the security on Kharg Island. They no longer do, because they’ve all been killed and their equipment and weapons blown up. On the mainland side of the pipeline, there is a major IRGC command center to govern and provide security for all three of Iran’s largest oil fields. It’s the Karbala Operational Base at Ahvaz. Or at least it was until last Thursday. 





And anything worth blowing up on Thursday is worth bouncing the rubble on Friday. 

Are there IRGC bases at the end of the other two pipelines? Nope. One IRGC superstation to defend three oil fields. Doesn’t seem very smart to me, but then again, I wouldn’t read poetry to an empty chair at the end of Ramadan, either. 

Estimates before the war listed the ranks of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps at around 170,000. As for killed in action or injured enough to take off the board, the IDF believes the number is around 6,000 dead and another 15,000 being fitted for their sheet of cardboard in sick bay. It’s a good start, but clearly a long way to go, right? Maybe not.

David Strom did the rest of my research work, showing that there’s more than a little dissention and defection in the ranks of the IRGC and Basij forces. 

Allow me to add supporting evidence to David’s great column. This is from Iran International English:

And if you want to know how hard IRGC is consistently being hit, here’s Major General Itzik Cohen, the head of the Israeli Defense Force’s Intelligence Division:

So to reset the scene, both ends of the pipeline, representing 90% of Iran’s revenue as a country, are no longer defended by the regime’s elite military unit. Ships are beginning to pass through the Strait of Hormuz once again, albeit slowly and gingerly, and Saudi Arabia is offering a pipeline of their own to bypass the Strait entirely, removing a lot of the threat to oil tankers in the first place. 

IRGC and Basij bases all over the country are being destroyed systemically every single day this turkey shoot goes on. There are widespread, verifiable reports that IRGC and Basij forces, discouraged and demoralized by being ordered to shoot their neighbors, not being paid for it because the banks have been hijacked by the Americans and Israelis, and/or getting killed where they stand in the streets by air attacks or drone strikes, are disappearing into the woodwork. 

If you’re Donald Trump, especially with 5,000 Marines nearby, the opportunity to choke the last of the regime to death might be too big to resist. 





If the U.S. and Israel made a move to seize the oil industry out from under the regime, maybe with the cooperation and alliance with the Khuzestanis, certainly the remnants of regime leadership will throw every remaining man they have, right? 

That’s where the CIA, the Mossad, and Crown Prince Pahlavi would come into play. 

Pahlavi has done everything but put the blue warpaint on his face like Mel Gibson in Braveheart, screaming, “Hold! Hold! Hold!” But at some point, if there is any coordination, as soon as the order is given to grab the oil production and cut off the regime entirely, the second the regime reacts, that’s when the protests in the streets break out. 

Trump has minimized whether he thinks Pahlavi’s return is a viable option. He hasn’t rejected it entirely, but has distanced himself. Perhaps he believes the next leader has to be someone with skin in the game in the country right now. That’s certainly a good theory. Another, though, is that by seemingly back-burnering Pahlavi, it might actually give the Crown Prince more credibility with factions of Iran, not quite as inviting to America’s intervention. He won’t appear, at least initially, as a puppet of the United States. 

If regular Iranians release the kraken at the right time, when the regime desperately needs to redirect forces to protect the oil money being stolen out from under them, the calculus for revolution changes immeasurably. Give the IRGC and Basij machine guns, unlimited ammunition, and an unarmed populace with no other distractions, and you’ll end up with 35,000-plus dead Iranians every time. Introduce regime-threatening attacks on their infrastructure, little to no command and control after relentless air attacks, a populace in the streets that have drones and perhaps A-10 Warthogs to give them close air support, and the odds look a little different. It could resemble the township of Rock Ridge ambushing the Hedley Lamar posse in Blazing Saddles. 

The United States is very, very good at getting the job done if you give them the opportunity to plan, stage, and then execute the plan. We showed that in Venezuela. The first two-plus weeks of Operation Epic Fury have demonstrated that to our adversaries, even if American media and partisan Democrats, wittingly or unwittingly, parrot Iranian propaganda, Iran’s only useful weapon remaining. 

All the conditions that would be necessary to drink Iran’s milkshake and shorten the length of this war fairly quickly are becoming clearer by the day. 

Venezuela has already fallen. They have become an American-friendly government almost overnight after the Maduro raid. Cuba is inviting the FBI to Havana this week, and has announced that for the first time ever on the Communist island, private ownership and investment will be respected. Over 50 political prisoners have been released from prison, with the promise of more to come. Donald Trump, again holding all the cards, will not allow a Castroista leader to run Cuba. It’s time for a change. It’s time for a new dawn in Havana. Iran is right there at the tipping point, and with a coordinated nudge, three of the most evil regimes on Earth could be replaced within a six-month time frame. 

Extraordinary, right? Not according to Ben Rhodes, Barack Obama’s Marxist-loving foreign policy guru who is watching his plans for a Chinese Century, secured by a nuclear-armed Iran controlling the Middle East, go up in smoke like an underground Isfahan missile bay. 





Poor Ben. What could have been – oppression, women subjugated, gays hung in the streets, except the one that’s allegedly the current Supreme Leader, dissidents murdered, jailed, or disappeared, media freedoms replaced by regime talking points broadcast at gunpoint. Nothing is more depressing than when you’re accusing your own country of being authoritarian than when it uses its force and will to undermine and destroy three actual authoritarian regimes.  

I’ll take a president who doesn’t care about what the so-called experts say, follows his gut, and conducts domestic and foreign policy he believes are in the country’s best interest, and wins an awful lot of the time, any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Drink their milkshake, Mr. President. Drink it up. 


Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.

Help us report the truth about the Trump administration’s decisive actions to keep Americans safe and bring peace to the world. Join Hot Air VIP and use promo code FIGHT to get 60% off your membership!





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