Here’s something I doubt many people had on their bingo card. A new poll released today shows two Republicans leading the California race for governor.
Despite a long, entrenched Democratic reign over California politics, a new poll shows two Republicans leading by slim margins in the state’s 2026 race for governor as the June primary election fast approaches.
The confounding results appear to be mostly due to the state’s left-leaning electorate feeling uninspired by any single candidate in the crowded field of eight top Democrats. Because of California’s top-two primary rule, that lethargy could lead to Democrats being shut out of a November election that will determine the next leader of the largest state in the union, though that is still considered unlikely.
Conservative commentator Steve Hilton had the support of 17% of likely voters and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco had the backing of 16%, according to a poll released Wednesday by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by The Times.
Steve Hilton was quick to capitalize on the results, highlighting the fact that he is currently outperforming both Katie Porter and Eric Swalwell.
🚨NEW POLL ALERT! From Berkeley IGS👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/VZfPrwQx27
— Steve Hilton (@SteveHiltonx) March 18, 2026
Sheriff Bianco hasn’t posted about this poll yet but has a similar post up based on a poll last month which showed him in the lead.
NEW POLL: Republican Sheriff Chad Bianco leads all candidates once again.
This is a rejection of the crime and corruption of Gavin Newsom. Voters are hungry for something different, and I am the only candidate providing that. pic.twitter.com/Y3dcAfFT3r
— Sheriff Chad Bianco (@ChadBianco) February 24, 2026
The funniest part of this is that California has what’s called a jungle primary system. That means the primary itself is held without regard to party. Whichever two candidates get the most votes become the candidates who compete in the general election in November.
Most of the time in California the result of this system is that two Democratic candidates win the primary and no Republican candidate even makes it to the general election. But in this case, we’re actually seeing the opposite happen. Because there are 8 Democrats running their vote is split. The current poll shows Katie Porter with a slight advantage over Eric Swalwell but Tom Steyer has spent a lot of money on television ads and has basically bought his way into the race.
Porter slightly rebounded after a dip in polling in the fall after videos emerged of her berating an aide and a reporter. She also has the highest favorable rating of any candidate in the field at 34%.
According to the survey, Steyer’s support from likely voters increased to 10% from just 1% in Berkeley’s October poll. The momentum comes after Steyer spent about $50 million airing television ads since December, according to an analysis by data expert Paul Mitchell for Capitol Weekly.
Behind those top three, there are also a few minor candidates like Xavier Becerra at 5% and Antonio Villaraigosa at 4% support. Unless one or more of these Democrats drops out prior to the primary in June, it’s possible the vote will remain split enough that two Republicans will head to the general election.
No doubt there is a lot of pressure being placed on Becerra and Villaraigosa to step aside and endorse Porter or Swalwell. That would give one of them a chance to at least get into this race.
But I’m not sure Tom Steyer, who has all the money he needs to keep running TV ads, is going to drop out. He’s gone from 1% to 10%. What’s to stop him from driving that up to 16-17%. He might wind up taking many of the voters from Becerra or Villaraigosa if they drop out. In other words, he could create a three way split in which Democrats still find themselves in danger of not making it to the general election.
If one of the Democrats does make it into the top two for the primary, the general election is probably a foregone conclusion. Once Democrats only have one candidate to choose from, the Republican won’t have much of a chance at winning a statewide race. But stay tuned, this is shaping up to be much more entertaining that I think anyone expected it to be.
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