Is this the end of the war, or the start of a massive troll?
Either way, it certainly makes for good television. It might also be Donald Trump’s final gambit for remote regime change, and may end up succeeding:
🚨 FOX NEWS ALERT: Peter Doocy reports President Trump just told CBS News the Iranian regime has AGREED to allow U.S. personnel to enter Iran to collect and extract leftover uranium.
“This explained why it is he’s so confident a deal is about to be closed with the Iranians.”… pic.twitter.com/hvhw2KluLW
— TV News Now (@TVNewsNow) April 17, 2026
Trump has spent most of the day making claims about Iranian capitulation, presumably from negotiators in the Pakistani government attempting to broker an end to the war. Trump has insisted all week that the blockade has checkmated the IRGC regime into agreeing to American terms before Iran’s economy and political structure implodes. Over the last 24 hours especially, Trump has claimed that an agreement is all but complete, and that Iran hasn’t even asked for its frozen assets to be released.
At the same time, the regime in Iran has issued several contradictory messages – contradicting Trump, certainly, but contradicting themselves too. Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz open, then the IRGC-controlled Fars news service criticized that concession, and then suddenly spokesmen for parts of the regime seemed to compete for authority to speak on its behalf. Trump also claimed this afternoon that Iran had agreed to stop funding Hezbollah and Hamas, which sparked more contradictory messages.
The result of all this? Traffic still isn’t moving through the Strait of Hormuz yet, at least not robustly, but it has increased a little:
MarineTraffic data shows that just over half a dozen commercial vessels have transited the strait since the announcement.
Data from KPler, a real-time trade intelligence platform, shows that eight commercial vessels had crossed as of 2 pm EST Friday compared to five on Thursday. The data refers to commercial fleets of crude tankers, LPG, LNG, and dry bulk vessels. Containerships are not included in the count.
Before the war, the strait saw an average of over 120 transits daily.
The earlier burst of announcements created a sharp drop in the price of oil. By this evening, basic crude was back up a bit but still 9.5% lower than the opening price, although Brent crude actually ticked up slightly overall. The world is waiting for this weekend to clarify the difference between competing claims and the reality of negotiations.
Is Trump just trying to work the refs in Islamabad? The Iranians pulled that trick before last weekend’s talks, announcing American concessions that neither Trump nor J.D. Vance would offer, especially on “reparations.” That didn’t do anything for their negotiating position, as they quickly discovered when Vance walked away from the table. The US isn’t a regime on the edge of collapse and two deep breaths away from a coup/countercoup cycle either.
As my friend J.E. Dyer says, don’t expect Trump to send a retrieval team yet:
This is still all contingent on Iranian demands being met, as I understand it. E.g., compensation for damages & other things US is never going to do.
I would not put any unprotected civilians in Iran for uranium removal while a Zombie Regime is in place. https://t.co/srGCuFKjhj— J.E. Dyer ☘️ (@OptimisticCon) April 17, 2026
David will have more on this later in the evening, including how it may just push the regime to a tipping point.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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