The Republican Party is headed into the midterm elections armed with a powerful economic case in favor of keeping its majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Unfortunately for Republican candidates, it’s unlikely to move many voters.
The U.S. economy’s growth is surging. The economy expanded at a 3.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter of the year. That momentum appears to have continued into the fourth quarter, with S&P Global saying last week that its purchasing managers’ survey results are consistent with five percent growth in October. A barometer of the manufacturing sector released Monday by the Institute for Supply Management showed the strongest production in nearly five years.
Midterm elections, however, are not typically decided on questions of economic growth. While an expanding economy helps an incumbent president or his party in presidential election years, it appears to have little to no direct effect on midterm elections.
While inflation has run much lower under President Donald Trump and the GOP majorities than it did during the Biden years, it is still uncomfortably high. And the Iran war has pushed up gasoline prices and sent the various inflation indexes climbing again this year, with the personal consumption expenditure price index rising 3.6 percent year-over-year in September. This has given the Democrats and their media allies a reason to talk endlessly about an “affordability crisis” afflicting America.
This too might not matter much. Most studies of the impact of inflation on midterm elections have found it carries almost no weight. It’s possible that this year will be different, with many voters telling pollsters that inflation and affordability are the top issue facing the country, but history gives us reason to doubt that the difference between, say, two percent inflation—the Fed’s target—and 3.6 percent inflation will make a difference in the outcome this week.
