The writer is in Australia
SEPARATED by massive distance, but uniquely sharing history, brotherhood, tradition and current political cultures, Australia and Britain find themselves in by-election lockstep.
Brits will probably have not heard of the Australian electorate of Farrer. Most Australians will not have heard of Gorton and Denton. The latter by-election has been decided, on February 26, leaving a fair chunk of the British punditocracy in mild shock.
The date for Farrer is May 9, following the resignation from Parliament of the recently deposed leader of the Liberal Party, Sussan Ley.
On the face of it, the two electorates have nothing in common. Urban Manchester and rural Australia don’t suggest a shared political culture. Farrer covers nearly 50,000 square miles, about a fifth of the state of New South Wales (remembering that France fits comfortably within NSW).
Farrer has a negligible Muslim population. Very few Greens. Plenty of farmers, though. And a couple of rural cities, including Albury. It has been a safe Liberal Party seat for many years. Its principal demographic groups (by ancestry) in Farrer are Australian, English, Irish, Scottish and Italian. Our Manchester friends, of course, are massively and infamously multi-cultural.
Almost everybody in Farrer speaks English. Well, Australian. In Gorton and Denton, many of the Greens’ flyers were printed in Urdu.
There are system differences, too. Unlike the UK, voting in Australian by-elections is compulsory. The flow of preferences will, most likely, be critical here. Preferences don’t come into play at all in Britain.
Why would anyone, therefore, seek to link the two electorates?
Well, both Britain and Australia are at electoral crossroads. We share failed UniParty governance. We are both the victims of mass immigration and aggressive Muslim colonialism. We have experienced failed conservatism. We have extremist, ‘progressive’ governments. We have insurgent alt-right political movements which are split. We share electoral systems – whether first-past-the-post or preferential – which favour UniParty incumbents.
And we have in play by-elections that have been cast as litmus tests for emergent, insurgent parties which have been, in both countries, polling magnificently but whose recent upswings have been largely untested in real electoral contests. In Britain, it is Reform UK. In Australia, it is One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson.
Are we on the cusp of an alt-right counter-revolution that will finally deliver policies that most of the people want, or will we both flame out?
Well, Reform UK came a cropper in Gorton and Denton. The Greens won on the back of co-ordinated, strategic Muslim support. Built carefully over decades. And very cynical, too, on the parts of both Muslims and Greens.
Unbelievable, to distant eyes. But – whatever works when the name of the game seems to be keeping the alt-right out of politics. Especially Reform UK.
In an FPP system, coming second is like an Olympic silver medal. The first of all the losers, as Jerry Seinfeld said. Hence the widespread calls in Britain for electoral reform and, in particular, for some form of proportional representation, the kind that applies in Australia’s Senate.
Reform UK did well. Increased their vote substantially. Polished candidate. Effective campaign. Disgruntled national electorate. A hated Government. But . . . they came second.
In Farrer, One Nation faces the Liberals, the Nationals and the ‘Climate 200’ brigade (similar to the Greens, but dress better), and possibly an independent or two. Labor is likely to sit it out. One Nation is upbeat.
Hanson has described Farrer’s significance: ‘The eyes of the entire nation will be on the outcome.’
No pressure, then.
Pauline’s Party has just announced its candidate – a 69-year-old white farmer/agricultural consultant with an international business background and serious local community cred. A man of regional Australia. A leaderly looking bloke. The sort of candidate the Nationals and the regional Liberals would once have picked. He will give One Nation its best chance for an insurgent breakthrough. Farrer’s Matt Goodwin? Perhaps David Farley, too, will do brilliantly and come second.
In the May 2025 general election, which Sussan Ley won easily for the Liberals in Farrer, though with a reduced majority, the greenie climate change independent came second. One Nation scored a mere 6.6 per cent of the primary vote. Way behind Labor. Other alt-right micro parties got about 10 per cent between them. That is not even a year ago. The national political mood has changed that much. And One Nation has clearly emerged over this same time period as the clear first among equals on the alt-right.
Some Labor stalwarts here want the ALP to stand a candidate and preference the Liberals, just to keep One Nation out. Or just vote Liberal, if you are a Labor voter.
Does this sound familiar to British readers? Just keep the ‘far right’ racists and deplorables out!
In the UK, there has been a narrative, based on national polls, that Farage will be PM come 2029, whatever happens between now and then. I have never assumed this will happen. Polling is just . . . polling. It means nothing.
Down under, One Nation faces exactly the same challenge as Reform UK. The alt-right excitement over recent polls is overblown. As Gorton and Denton showed, all too clearly. Farrer may do the same.
Despite the collapse of the Tories at each end of the Qantas One route, the way forward for the insurgent parties of the alt-right is far from clear. Gorton and Denton has been a stunning reality check for those who have seemed to think that conservative party rethinks will seamlessly lead to an alt-right take-over.
Gorton and Denton has locked in the Muslim takeover of Britain. A sobering lesson if ever there was one.
The Farrer by-election might just serve as a similar reality check. I hope there are at least a few Aussies (at least in rural areas) who might recognise the stakes in play. Failure to win in Farrer will lead to yet another round of soul-searching for One Nation and the rest of the largish, peeved class, in the shadow of electoral system realities and the experienced ground games of the legacy parties. They may be policy failures and evil, but they sure know how to hang on to power.
Australians on the right will be hoping that where goes Farrer, so might go the nation. Everything suggests that Farrer should be a high point for the disgruntled. But if One Nation bombs in Farrer, there is little hope for better results elsewhere. On the other hand, British supporters of Reform UK (and also Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain) will be praying that where went Manchester, there does NOT go the rest of Britain. For the optimists, it is worth noting that Gorton and Denton was, after all, Reform’s 440th target seat!
