Election data shows Tennessee’s 5th District would be closer than previous elections but still lean slightly Republican.
Image Credit: John Partipilo/Tennessee Lookout
*Note from The Tennessee Conservative: This article posted for informational purposes only.
By Adam Friedman [Tennessee Lookout -CC BY-NC-ND 4.0] –
The vote total for state Rep. Aftyn Behn in the Tennessee 7th Congressional District race against now-U.S. Rep. Matt Van Epps show Democrats have narrowed their deficit to Republicans but not enough to flip any seats, an analysis of election data by the Lookout finds.
The race to watch in the 2026 election is Tennessee Congressional District 5, currently held by Columbia Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles. He’s won about 56% of the vote in the past two elections, the lowest of any Tennessee Republican who won their U.S. House race.
Behn performed better in every county in District 7 in 2025 when compared to the Democratic candidates in 2024 or 2022. But if the same shifts in Nashville, Williamson County and rural counties that happened in District 7 on the Dec. 2 special election occurred in the 5th district, the Democratic candidate would lose by 4 to 7 percentage points.
Kent Syler, a political science professor at Middle Tennessee State University, said based on his look at the election data, he came up with a similar number, but cautioned that the 2026 midterms are still 11 months away and a lot could happen.
“The biggest issue will be President Donald Trump’s popularity,” Syler said. “Midterms are always about the President.”
President Donald Trump’s approval rating is 36%, according to Gallup.
Trump’s approval rating is at its lowest since he returned to office in January, driven down by many voters who disapprove of the President’s handling of the economy and inflation.
In 2022, state Republicans redrew Tennessee’s U.S. Congressional map, dividing Nashville across three districts and successfully eliminating a Democratic-held seat in the old version of the 5th Distric — a seat held by Democrats from post-Reconstruction until Ogles’ 2022 election.
By cracking the district, Republicans narrowed their margins in districts 5, 6 and 7, which political analysts warned could make two of those districts competitive in a bad electoral year for Republicans.
“The shift we saw in the 7th district is the same one we saw in New Jersey and Virginia earlier this year,” said John Geer, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University. “All the Republicans should be fearful.”
During the campaign, both candidates ran on affordability, recognizing that the cost of living has become a top priority for voters.
Van Epps made clear during his election night speech that he didn’t blame Trump for economic issues and believed the president’s support in his race boosted his chances of winning.
“Tonight, you sent a clear message loud and clear,” Van Epps said. “The people of Middle Tennessee stand proudly behind President Donald Trump.”
Geer said Van Epps’ praise of Trump showed a potential problem for Republicans. To win close elections in 2026, candidates might need to separate themselves from the president, but “Trump won’t let them.”
“Ogles definitely won’t run away from Trump,” Geer said.
