Image Credit: @MattForTN / X
The Tennessee Conservative [By Olivia Lupia] –
While many Republicans have been celebrating the win by Matt Van Epps in the District 7 special election on Tuesday, several Congressman and conservative commentators had words of warning for the GOP about its messaging heading into the 2026 midterms after the election’s margin of victory was much smaller than anticipated in the historically safe red district.
Van Epps clinched victory over Democrat Aftyn Behn by approximately 9 percentage points, and while that seems a decent margin the spread is concerning to many in the GOP given Trump won the district by 22 points last year.
The 13-point Democrat shift is raising some red flags for Republicans who think the GOP needs to refocus their messaging on issues of voter importance, particularly affordability and cost of living, if they wish to maintain their majority next year.
When asked if he was concerned by the race’s single-digit margin, Tennessee’s Rep. Tim Burchett told CNN, “I’m always concerned, to be honest. We got a real problem and we better wake up. The best friend the Democrats have right now is the Republicans’ messaging because we do a terrible job of messaging.”
Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska thinks Republicans should be “sober” about the election result, believing it shows that, “Americans don’t feel better yet about the economy, and I think the last elections, it seems like the Democrats are outpacing expectations by about 10 points. That’s a tough election.”
Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri said the GOP has “got to help people be able to afford the necessities of life and just get by day-to-day,” specifically referring to ongoing debate on how to bring down the cost of living, especially in healthcare.
And Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas suggested Republicans need to do more to increase turnout as the midterms approach. “In a year, it’s going to be a turnout election, and the left will show up. Hate is a powerful motivator. They hate President Trump… We’ve got to set out alarm bells that if we allow the Democrats to flip the House, to flip the Senate, it is an absolute catastrophe,” he said.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota thinks the nine-point victory was a “fairly handy win”, but also acknowledged the party has “some challenge ahead of us”. “Obviously, we need to take to heart the fact that we have to sharpen our message,” he said.
Thune and some others remain confident Republicans will ultimately stay united around the nation but admitted a change in messaging might be warranted. “Midterms are tough for those in power,” said West Virginia Senator Jim Justice. “We’ve just got to be concerned.”
From a citizen commentator’s perspective, Tennessee-based conservative activist Robby Starbuck posted a lengthy statement about the election results and chastised the complacency of Congress, saying Americans perceive the body as having “weak leadership, bad priorities, & inconsistent messaging,” and saying it needs to “take a hard look in the mirror.”
“Enthusiasm from 2024 is gone. The blind trust is gone. [Voters] want action. The people in Congress need to realize that they aren’t Trump and he isn’t there to carry them on the ballot in 2026. They need to deliver now,” he wrote. “And many of the good things that have happened in Congress this year aren’t even reaching the ears or eyeballs of average voters because the messaging is soft and inconsistent. Voters feel like they’ve shown up time and time again for politicians but that politicians aren’t showing up for them. That goes for both sides, but the left has enthusiasm simply from their base hating Trump. Our side needs to actually motivate our people to vote.”
On the flip side, analysts and Democrats seem to be split on the Republican win, with many speculating that though there was a higher-than-average voter turnout for a special election and an overperformance by Democrats, the race could have been even closer, or possibly even resulted in a Democrat upset, if a more moderate candidate had run.
While Behn’s radical policies did not seem to impact her support in Democrat strongholds like Davidson County, swing counties like Montgomery appeared to find Behn slightly too off putting, ultimately giving Van Epps an 8-point win in the Clarksville area, lending some credence to the moderate theory.
Some analysts also suggest the combination of millions of dollars poured into the race coupled with reinvigorated Democrats and a less energized Republican base could signal a more significant shift for the 2026 midterms, especially as the slimmer margin of the special election comes on the heels of recent Democrat victories in several other states like Virginia, New Jersey, and New York.
Several special elections over the next few months, along with the impeding resignation of Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, are also predicted to benefit Democrats.
But for now, the GOP maintains a 220-213 majority as Van Epps was officially sworn in by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson on Thursday, Dec. 4.
About the Author: Olivia Lupia is a political refugee from Colorado who now calls Tennessee home. A proud follower of Christ, she views all political happenings through a Biblical lens and aims to utilize her knowledge and experience to educate and equip others. Olivia is an outspoken conservative who has run for local office, managed campaigns, and been highly involved with state & local GOPs, state legislatures, and other grassroots organizations and movements. Olivia can be reached at olivia@tennesseeconservativenews.com.
