Donald Trump knows it. Mike Johnson knows it, and made sure to set the trap. Heck, even John Fetterman realizes it.
But does Chuck Schumer? And more importantly, does Schumer’s caucus? The Wall Street Journal spelled it out for them on Monday:
If the GOP measure does pass the House on Tuesday, it goes to the Senate, where 60 votes are required to overcome the filibuster to move the bill. The GOP has a 53-47 majority.
Democrats could simply block the bill. In this case, however, walking away would almost certainly lead to a government shutdown. Democrats worry about taking the blame but also are nervous about letting funding lapse, given that it would cut off federal workers’ pay just as Trump has shown he is intent on squeezing government workers and closing offices—and might not be in a rush to make any deal.
“It’s going to be awful either way,” Rep. Steve Cohen (D., Tenn.) said.
Democrats walked into this trap on their own. They had watched the Republicans form circular firing squads during the last session and assumed that Johnson would be unable to advance any legislation without their help. Democrats could have completed the budget last year, either through regular order in time for the October 1 fiscal-year start or in the negotiations after the first CR. Instead, they chose to keep kicking the can down the road, assuming that it would lead to another implosion in the House Republican caucus and that they could control outcomes from the minority in both chambers.
They didn’t count on Johnson’s success, nor on Donald Trump’s determination to dismantle the bureaucratic state on an industrial scale. The latter especially takes all of the sting out of the threat of a government shutdown, as Schumer and his checkers-playing strategists are now discovering to their dismay.
Now they have to express their outrage over the CR without actually causing a government shutdown that Trump will use to argue for even deeper cuts. And there is a way out of that conundrum, but Punchbowl News isn’t too sure that Schumer can pull it off:
One Democratic senator suggested something that mirrors what Senate Republicans did to help Democrats raise the debt limit in 2021 while still being able to vote against the bill. This would involve a handful of Democrats voting with Republicans on cloture so that final passage could be at a simple majority threshold. GOP senators could then pass the CR on their own.
Yet even with this proposal, you could still make the argument that Senate Democrats gave in by allowing that first hurdle to be cleared.
Democrats could also demand votes on amendments in exchange for providing support to advance the measure. If there’s a deal on amendments, they could ask to vote on the short-term CR that Democratic appropriators drafted. This measure won’t pass, but this process would allow Democrats to show they tried to avert a shutdown and then immediately vote against the House-passed CR on final passage without consequences.
Fetterman just suggested the same strategy, although it was more of a hint expressed through his own personal plans in regard to the bill. The obvious choice here is to spend a day or so ripping the CR on the Senate floor, offer amendments that will all get shot down, and then allow cloture to get to a floor vote on Thursday night or Friday morning.
However, that may be easier said than done. Fetterman may have pledged to allow for a final floor vote, but it will take seven Democrats to get that accomplished in a 53-47 Senate. Which other six Senate Democrats want to walk the plank with infuriated progressive activist groups to allow for a Republican CR to control spending the rest of this fiscal year? Perhaps Jon Ossoff, who likely will face a tough re-elect campaign against Brian Kemp next year. Who are the other five? Can Schumer still organize his caucus to employ this strategy in an environment where his activist base is still cheering Al Green’s bizarre stunt last week and most Democrats wouldn’t even bother to stand for a 13-year-old boy battling brain cancer because Trump invited him?
Normally I’d call this a no-brainer. These days, however, I am not convinced that Democrats in Congress have more than a few operating brain cells in both caucuses combined. Speaking of no-brainers, House Progressive Caucus leader Pramila Jayapal and Squad leader Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez threaten “massive backlash” if Senate Democrats don’t shut down the government:
House Democrats warning Senate Democrats not to vote for GOP spending bill — as many Senate Dems torn with shutdown looming.
Pramila Jayapal warning of a “backlash” for Senate Dems who vote for it.
“They should refuse to allow this bill to pass in the Senate,” she told me.
If… pic.twitter.com/3n0Bs4MCUp
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) March 12, 2025
Stay tuned, and pass the popcorn, and wait to see how the Protection Racket Media will spin government shutdowns as a totes awesome thing if and when Democrats do it.
