EARLIER this month we at PeoplesPortalUK asked TCW readers to help with a voting intention survey. While conventional polls force people to choose one party in a surprise election to be held tomorrow, we asked which parties people were considering voting for in an election four weeks away. If they chose more than one party we asked who they would be most likely to vote for. At the time of writing 153 readers had taken part. The responses suggest a high degree of uncertainty. While 35 per cent of the readers who took part were considering only one party, 59 per cent were considering two or more. The balance were not likely to vote.
While this is obviously a particular sample, the abandonment of loyalty to the established parties was seen in survey responses we’ve gathered from elsewhere: a polarisation between what might be termed ‘left’ (Green, Labour, Lib Dem, Your Party) and ‘right’ parties (Advance UK, Conservative, Reform, Restore Britain). Only three TCW readers (2 per cent) were considering voting for one of the ‘left’ options. On the ‘right’, in terms of potential votes Reform came out top, followed by Restore, Advance UK and the Conservatives in that order. A minority would consider an independent candidate, with the Heritage Party getting two votes.
Half (50 per cent) would consider voting tactically with the majority of those doing so wanting to stop Labour, the Green Party or the Lib Dems. This phenomenon is not really factored into current opinion polls and adds one more layer of uncertainty.
When we dig deeper we see that half of readers who would vote for Reform are considering other parties. The same is true for Restore with the majority of Advance ‘voters’ considering at least one other party. As far as TCW readers are concerned, the Conservative Party seems to be a lost cause, with all those still considering voting for them also considering other parties. At a national level, this open choice means that any projection of votes or seats based on the conventional polling approach is subject to a wide margin of tolerance. Most people haven’t made their minds up. This makes the current polls entertaining but meaningless.
In the last week eight different polling companies have published voting intention surveys. While all of these put Reform out in the lead, their projected vote share for Reform ranges from 27 per cent to 30 per cent with one outlier (YouGov) at 23 per cent. YouGov have responded to Reform’s criticism of their data by clarifying that they use a two-step questioning approach.
Five of the recent polls put Labour second, two place the Conservatives second with one having the Greens in second place. The Green vote share ranged from 11 per cent to 14 per cent in most polls with two outliers at 19 per cent and 21 per cent. There were five different rankings of the second-to-fifth-place parties. Does anyone believe these results?
The eight polls were all based on fieldwork this month (i.e. after the Gorton and Denton by-election). They have variously been used to calculate seat projections for the UK and Scottish parliaments, the Senedd and London borough councils. All of these have provided a single projection, implying a degree of confidence or certainty with no consideration being given to the impact differential voter turnout. These projections might best be described as academic exercises. They demonstrate the ease with which computing power can engage in mathematically pointless calculations.
Our survey also asked TCW readers’ opinions of the current crop of MPs. Only 5 per cent said they felt most were trustworthy; 81 per cent said most were not, 13 per cent said half were trustworthy with 2 per cent not expressing an opinion. The main comments about MPs were that they are out of touch, lack experience and put party before constituents. We clearly need some better people elected.
‘Who are they representing, the people or the people pulling the strings above them?’
‘They are all incapable of dealing with the Civil Service which is neither civil nor a service.’
‘Self-seeking, self-centred, self-important.’
‘They mostly vote along party lines regardless of whether the policy under discussion is in Britain’s interest or not.’
The second section asked about local elections. These will be held in London, selected counties and elsewhere on Thursday May 7 along with Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections. We asked readers whether they would be interested in standing as an independent in the local elections. One said yes, 12 said maybe. (If you were one of these people and you asked for more information you should have had an email by now.)
The main qualities readers were looking for in an independent councillor seemed to be the opposite of the qualities they saw in MPs. Readers wanted someone who was honest and had integrity, with local knowledge and a community focus, common sense and competence.
‘Apparent honesty, committed Christian. Locally based and established, with a desire to serve the people.’
‘Someone with a moral compass, a good amount of local knowledge and no interest in milking the system for themselves and their mates!’
‘Competence – something which is sadly lacking in the present council.’
‘Integrity, clarity of thought, common sense and a generally anti-woke attitude.’
If these phrases describe you, it still not too late to put yourself forward. The survey is still open and can be completed using this link if you want to opt in to get more information or detailed results.
