You can read the first part of this article here.
WHAT emerges from the impossible drive for ‘Clean Energy by 2030’ is that we need more nuclear. Construction of Hinkley Point C power plant began in 2016-17, and electricity is scheduled to flow by 2030. But in spite of the huge cost (currently put at £35billion) it will contribute slightly less than 10 per cent (3.2GW) of peak winter demand. Sizewell C is a Hinkley replica, coming on-stream hopefully in the mid-2030s with another 3.2GW. It seems that even by 2035 we’ll still need gas, or are there other possibilities?
One source of back-up energy during the 2030s could be Long Duration Electricity Storage batteries (LDES), but details of specific research and development are currently rather vague. To replace gas completely during possible winter low wind and weak sun periods of three or four days would need massive capacity and duration, way beyond anything we have at the moment.
After years of dithering by several recent governments, last November Sir Keir Starmer announced that ‘the UK’s first small modular nuclear reactors [SMRs] will be built in north Wales.’ Rolls-Royce won the contract (much to Donald Trump’s disgust, as he thought an American company should have been preferred). There will be three units on the island of Anglesey (470mW each, total 1.4GW). There is capacity for up to eight of these units. Target output date mid-2030s for the first three.
These smaller, cheaper and quicker to build reactors are also planned for the UK’s first nuclear-powered data campus at Cottam, a former power station at Retford, Nottinghamshire. Part of a US/UK partnership, there will be an initial two SMR-300 units. They are forecast to begin working in the 2030s but are specifically for the adjacent data centre.
When this project was announced in September last year Ed Miliband talked about ‘reaping the benefits of this golden age of nuclear, powering British homes with clean, homegrown energy, delivering well-paid skilled jobs and getting energy bills down for good’. Are we now on the way to being ‘Great’ again?
Maybe not yet. By the time we’ve paid for Hinkley Point and Sizewell C, plus all the planned new turbines and solar farms, plus vast-scale battery development and manufacture, plus all those SMRs and data centres, plus all the associated country-wide power lines, will energy bills really come down?
Something else waiting for us in those years of abundant power and tiny bills is the Hartlepool project. ‘Small’ modular reactors have now become ‘Advanced’ (AMRs). Twelve of these very small AMRs ‘will provide enough electricity (1GW) for up to 1½million homes and unlock £12billion for the northeast region’. You may wonder what ‘unlock’ means. No idea. Bonus for Hartlepool Borough Council?
The companies involved were quoted as claiming that the Hartlepool project will ‘pave the way for a national fleet of . . . advanced reactors which will provide power for 14million homes.’ Some basic maths tells us that would mean building more that one hundred AMRs of this type.
We are now well into the Horizon Wave mentioned yesterday, from 2040 to 2050 and beyond. The clean energy people seem to think all this nuclear might not be enough. They’re right, of course, but we’ll come to that in a minute. They introduced hydrogen into that Future Energy Scenarios report of July last year, forecasting that by 2050 we might need three times as much electricity as we use now. A proportion will be generated from hydrogen which will be helping ‘to power the network by the middle of the century’. Rather like the battery situation, details of any actual plan are scarce.
While we’re in the Horizon Wave, a quote from a report in 2024 said ‘We [the government] have set an ambition for up to 24 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity by 2050, which would cover up to a quarter of the country’s projected electricity demand.’ Let’s do the sums before heading even further into dreamland. This assumes everything happens as forecast.
Sizewell and Hinkley C: total 6.4GW.
Rolls-Royce SMRs: total 1.4GW and could eventually be up to 8 units: 4GW.
Hartlepool AMRs: total 1GW initially, then possibly up to 6GW
Cottam SMRs: for data centres only
Hydrogen: Uncertain
The maximum would seem to be 16.4GW, so there is clearly something I’ve missed. And there is. The ultimate vision.
We go now to greet that Great Britain I told you about at the beginning. We will have cheap electrical power because we are ‘the first country in the world with a clear path to commercial fusion that could ensure lasting energy security’. Yes, you read that right: nuclear fusion. The United Kingdom’s Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) has ‘a strategy [which] sets out a clear and credible vision for delivering sustainable fusion energy’.
Nuclear fusion? This is what the International Atomic Energy Agency says: ‘If nuclear fusion can be replicated on earth at an industrial scale, it could provide virtually limitless clean, safe, and affordable energy to meet the world’s demand.’
Notice that ‘If’? First we have to design ‘Sunrise’, ‘the world’s largest AI supercomputer dedicated to fusion power development’. It will have ‘simulation capability essential to drive UKAEA’s moonshot mission to put clean, green fusion energy on the UK power grid in the 2040s.’
There you are, as promised. Britain will once again be ‘Great’, back to its rightful place, leading the world to a new and glorious future.
I bet you’re wondering how much of all that will actually take place. So am I.
