WHY are we covering our countryside with ugly solar panels? To reduce carbon emissions, we are told. But are solar farms making any real difference to the country’s emissions? Are they even increasing them?
It sounds crazy, but the construction of solar farms itself increases global emissions of carbon dioxide. Solar panels, along with much of the ancillary stuff, are mostly made in China, using coal power. They have to be shipped to the UK and then installed. When all these extra emissions are factored in, they offset many of the emissions savings arising from the electricity produced.
The Great North Road Solar and Biodiversity Park is at present going through the planning process. This 800MW scheme targets 5,800 acres of farmland near Newark-on-Trent, Nottinghamshire. Spanning an area nearly nine by seven miles, the vast scheme is the equivalent of more than 16 Hyde Parks.
The developers, Elements Green Trent, have submitted an ‘Environmental Statement’, which includes a formal statement of the emissions that the project would produce and save. The calculations are remarkably detailed, including emissions arising not just from the manufacture of panels, sub-stations and batteries, but also every other conceivable aspect, including fabricating and painting security fencing, digging access tracks and even employee commuting. Most calculations are based either on official data or well accepted, publicly available sources.
They claim that over the 40-year life of the scheme, the emissions savings from the electricity produced will amount 3.9million tonnes/CO2, as solar power replaces electricity generated from natural gas.
To put these numbers into perspective, they represent about 0.03 per cent of UK emissions – a minuscule amount. But these savings must be offset against the emissions arising from the production of solar panels, shipping and installation, which they estimate will add up to 2.7million tonnes, two-thirds of the gross savings. The net savings, in other words, will be so tiny that they will be no more than a rounding up error.
Worse than this, independent experts have discovered that Great North Road Solar may even increase emissions over its lifetime.
Paul Williams, technical chairman of the Norwell Solar Farm Steering Group, has gone through the developer’s Environmental Statement with a fine-tooth comb, and discovered that it grossly overestimates emissions savings. He has worked closely with the developer’s consultant, Dr Paul Phillips, who has now accepted many of the queries raised.
Disagreement remains over critical assumptions – particularly how much electricity the solar farm would generate in practice.
According to Williams, Elements Green Trent have overstated the projected electricity generation by more than a third. They claim that the solar farm will run at 15.9 per cent of capacity, whereas existing solar farms work on average at about 10.5 per cent. This means, of course, that the emissions savings have been overstated.
Another discrepancy concerns the degradation of solar panels. As time goes by, solar panels become less and less effective. Based on real world data, according to Williams, all of the solar panels would need to be replaced during the 40-year life, whereas the developers have assumed a 10 per cent panel replacement rate. It must, in any event, be questionable whether the solar farm would survive for 40 years.
Replacement of solar panels would, of course, drastically increase emissions in China. Battery life, it is claimed, has also been overstated, again meaning more replacement batteries and more emissions in China.
When all these factors are taken into account, the Norwell Group study has found that far from reducing emissions, Great North Road will actually increase them by between 1.8million and 2.3million tonnes/CO2.
The amount of electricity produced by Great North Road will in any event be tiny, averaging just 0.2 per cent of the UK’s electricity output.
The Norwell Solar Farm Steering Group has made several submissions to the Planning Inspectorate regarding this project and is now recognised as a Category 1 Stakeholder, which formally makes the group part of the planning process.
Paul Williams, who is also working on other solar farm proposals, believes that Great North Road is not the only project to have grossly overestimated emissions savings. One problem is that most local campaign groups do not have access to the specialist input that Williams provides.
As Great North Road is classed as a ‘Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project’, it effectively goes to Ed Miliband to sign off. What chance is there that he will stop the project?
This case is part of a wider issue. On paper, this new solar farm will reduce UK emissions, but only at the expense of exporting them to China, in the same way as we do when we buy electric cars.
Whole swathes of British industry have shut down in recent years, again cutting the country’s emissions on paper. But we still consume the goods that used to be manufactured here – the emissions associated with them simply appear on China’s balance sheet instead of ours.
Miliband will no doubt approve Great North Road, happy that he can tick his boxes. But it won’t make the slightest difference in global terms.
