An open letter to the Secretary of State for Energy and Net Zero
Dear Mr Miliband
WE ARE told that 60 GW of new offshore and around 45 GW of new onshore wind farm capacity is to be installed by 2035, delivering around 300 TWh pa. In September 2024, you said that bill payers ‘are to spend between £100 and £150 per household, on new wind turbines’.But at £2.7billion and £1.2billion/GW respectively, the capital cost of the above wind capacity would be well over £200billion.
That equates to > £7,000 per household, ie around £700 per household pa over ten years, plus the cost of subsidies. So clearly you need to correct your statement as soon as possible. The Ministerial Code is clear that ‘It is of paramount importance that ministers give accurate and truthful information, correcting any inadvertent error at the earliest opportunity.’Please would you correct that error.
Next the cost of back-up power capacity must be added. By 2035, Grid Maximum Demand (MD) is expected to reach 85GW and that backup capacity (eg in the form of gas turbine and nuclear generators) will be needed to carry the MD when wind and solar intensity is negligible. At around £5billion per GW, that would incur a further £200billion of capital.
Added to that is the cost of 3,000 miles of vulnerable offshore submarine cable connections, plus 600 miles of HV overhead lines, along with substation costs, which together will add >£3billion to the capital cost of wind farms. That neglects the extra transmission power losses and the eye-watering subsidies which have been rising year on year, now comprising around 30 per cent of electricity costs.
Of course wind farms are not maintenance-free and assuming £50 m/GW pa, the Operation and Maintenance (O&M) cost for 135GW of wind capacity equates to>£6billion pa. The wind turbines have to be replaced at intervals of around 20 years and clearly their energy output will never be free. The O&M cost of the backup power capacity will also need to be added.
Since we will need 85GW of conventional generation capacity by 2035 – with intrinsic rotational inertia – it surely makes sense to run those generators continuously, more efficiently and stably, than to continue to heavily subsidise intermittent wind. It is clearly time to apprise taxpayers of the whole truth, based on up-to-date viability and cost studies.
Allowing high energy costs to drive industry abroad only to increase global emissions while exacerbating UK fuel poverty and increasing the probability of power cuts cannot be justified.
Best wishes
Roger J Arthur, CEng, MIEE, MIET.
