Well, the midterm cycle so far looks a lot like a … midterm cycle. As of now, we have only lost one Senate seat, an expected flip in North Carolina, but the races in Florida looked a lot closer than anyone expected.
The good news is that the GOP has held the Senate and gubernatorial races. DecisionDesk HQ just called the race that will make Byron Donalds the first black governor of the Sunshine State, but David Jolly came a lot closer to winning the seat than anyone expected. Ron DeSantis transformed Florida from a purple state to a deep-red state four years ago, but today’s narrow win for Donalds should have the GOP worried about prospects for the 2028 presidential race.
Perhaps Marco Rubio might get another look by Republican leadership, especially with the Vances suggesting that the VP might take a pass to spend time with his young children.
Ashley Moody had an easier time winning a full term to the Senate, but Angie Nixon ran on a DSA platform – and still got 49% of the vote, at least as of now. Nixon won Miami-Dade and Broward counties with an explicitly socialist platform, a shocking result considering the legacy of the Cuban refugees that populate south Florida.
Even more worrisome: the redistricting effort didn’t pay off at all. DeSantis and the state GOP drew the maps to flip four House seats to the GOP, and they may get one of them. The results from other House races look dismal so far tonight, but we expected to lose seats. We expected to buffer those losses with the redistricting in Florida, Texas, and a handful of other states.
At this moment, the tea leaves look like we will get a normal midterm cycle outcome, not a massive tsunami or a Republican surprise. At least the GOP held the line in Florida. Congratulations to Governor-Elect Donalds and Senator Moody, and we’ll keep fingers crossed for a few pleasant surprises later tonight.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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