A COLLECTIVE howl of despair could be heard throughout the Unionist community of Scotland on Friday at the prospect of five more years of SNP rule following the Holyrood elections. I can’t have been alone in feeling a bit like a prisoner, incarcerated for a crime I don’t remember committing, having looked forward with the faintest, vainest hope to a parole hearing; then being turned down, and having to shuffle back forlornly to my cell knowing it would be half a decade before I could even apply again.
And yet a few shards of sunlight are discernible through the bars. Yes, we are stuck with another half-decade at least of the SNP with the inevitable maladministration and blather about separation that will entail, but the reality, which few seem to appreciate, is that the union is in no immediate danger. Indeed, there is strong evidence that the SNP is in steep decline, that there will be no second independence referendum any time soon, and that the movement to break up the UK is in serious trouble.
Let’s look at what actually happened. The SNP received 850,000 constituency votes, which is down by more than 400,000 from 2021, with a similar drop on the list. The four Unionist parties in contrast got a combined 1.2million (60 per cent of all votes cast). The SNP got 33 per cent of a 53 per cent turnout, which means a whopping 17 per cent of the electorate went out and voted for the supposed party of independence, nowhere near enough for the SNP majority John Swinney claimed would justify a new referendum. The SNP remains top dog (among a sorry collection of mongrels and strays), but its ‘victory’ makes Labour’s loveless landslide of 2024 seem almost glorious.
Swinney will no doubt claim there is an ‘independence majority’ thanks to the fresh gaggle of Scottish Greens elected to the chamber (including one without a work visa) but this is another illusion. The Scottish Greens formally embraced independence in 2005, but only the wilfully blind could fail to see this position for the shameless D’Hondt method that it always was (isn’t climate action better pursued on as large a scale as possible?). Obsessed with Gaza, transgender issues and anti-capitalism, for the Scottish Greens independence is an afterthought to an afterthought. It is briefly mentioned in chapter 27 of their manifesto and there is no demand for another referendum. In any case, the Greens finished last in this election with 350,000 votes for which they were awarded a ridiculous and wholly unjustifiable 15 seats.
Another SNP Green ‘pro-independence’ (‘twins of evil’) coalition is being talked about. But it seems unlikely given that the last time the two parties worked together, it was an unmitigated disaster that cost then First Minister Humza Yousaf his job and precipitated some of the worst policy fiascos of the SNP era. In any case, the SNP doesn’t need the Greens; the Lib Dems or Labour will serve as well to get whatever policies they come up with over the line and will likely ask for far less in return. A Labour Party in disarray, desperate to stay relevant, is likely to be biddable.
But if cynicism about the Scottish Greens’ separatist credentials is justified, surely the SNP are the real deal and will pursue the break-up of the UK in advance of any other priority. With potential allies in Belfast and Cardiff, it may prove formidable. That seems to be the orthodox view south of the border and it is a remarkably resilient one. Some commentators hailed last week’s results, with the SNP still by far the largest party, as proof that the union is once again in grave peril.
In truth, the SNP have not meaningfully pursued independence for years and that is unlikely to change. They are viewed with suspicion bordering on disgust by Nationalist long marchers. The true believers, most prominently represented by the Wings Over Scotland website editor Stu Campbell, had hoped Alex Salmond’s Alba would provide an alternative vehicle to the promised land. Alba no longer exists, which means their pain is excruciating as they watch what they believe to be the corrupt, faux nationalists of the SNP continue to absorb and dissipate much of the energy of the independence movement. The SNP is the ‘corpse blocking the path’, wrote Campbell recently.
For a bit like the train drivers’ union Aslef (the ‘F’ stands for ‘firemen’, a job that ceased to exist in the late 1960s when the last 15 guinea steam train was decommissioned), the ‘National/Nationalist’ part of the SNP has become notional. Occasional lip service is paid to the great cause, appropriate gestures made, but it is all performative. Swinney will no doubt continue to cosy up to Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill and whoever emerges as Senedd leader in Wales and mutter about a grand anti-Westminster coalition (all the while accepting the subsidies) but it will just be theatre, just noise.
Meanwhile, Malcolm Offord, leader of Reform in Scotland, can sit pretty with his 16 fellow MSPs. Already snubbed by Swinney, who has refused to include his party in talks on Scotland’s future (all the other parties are invited, though the Scottish Tories have refused), Offord can enjoy the luxury of five years of pot shots at the Scottish government as it faces the challenges ahead, of which there are many, including an estimated £5billion budget shortfall.
People I’ve spoken to who know Offord say that was always the plan – establish a bridgehead in 2026 and gain credibility in contrast to an inevitably shambolic, tired, broke and disintegrating SNP over the five years that follow.
Whatever else last week’s election result was, it was emphatically not a triumph for the independence movement. What will be left of their cause by 2031 is anyone’s guess, but there is room for cautious unionist optimism that our next parole hearing might go rather better.
