Blockade? Bombs? Why not … both? An argument does exist for the latter, but it depends on the application.
For now, though, Donald Trump wants to hurry matters along in Iran. The naval blockade has succeeded in creating an economic “death spiral,” and that will only get worse as the IRGC runs out of places to store the crude it can’t afford to stop pumping. Trump wants that pressure to either force Ahmad Vahidi to surrender Iran’s uranium stores, or to force someone else to force Vahidi out, perhaps horizontally. A return to full-scale bombing on the shock-and-awe basis might give Vahidi more room to operate, however, although Trump clearly threatened that again this morning.
Is there a middle ground? Perhaps. Trump told Axios today that he may try adding in some targeted attacks while maintaining the blockade, either to take out the IRGC’s current leadership or to incentivize others to do it themselves:
Behind the scenes: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has prepared a plan for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iran in hopes of breaking the negotiating deadlock, three sources with knowledge said.
- After the strikes, which would likely include infrastructure targets, the U.S. would press the regime to come back to the negotiating table and show more flexibility.
- Trump told Axios he saw the blockade as “somewhat more effective than the bombing,” and the sources said he had yet to order any kinetic action as of Tuesday night. He did post an AI-generated meme of himself holding a gun with a warning to Iran and the tagline, “NO MORE MR. NICE GUY.”
- For now, Trump sees continuing the blockade as his primary source of leverage, but he would consider military action if it Iran still won’t cave, according to the sources. He declined to discuss any military plans in Wednesday’s phone interview, which lasted around 15 minutes.
This certainly sounds reasonable. A “short and powerful wave” might rattle Vahidi and his lieutenants enough to finally cave on the nuclear issue. Vahidi seems to have gotten comfortable in his current position, so much so that he’s even made it clear that he’s issuing orders rather than the Cardboardatollah.
The problem with the “both” option is that a little bit of bombing is likely to be the same as getting a little bit pregnant. It might start off small, but it will grow pretty rapidly thereafter. Vahidi is still threatening shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but at least for now, he’s stopped firing missiles and drones at Iran’s neighbors in the Gulf. As soon as the US and Israel return to action in the air, Vahidi will respond with the same kind of indiscriminate missile and drone attacks on the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Israel again, of course. That could lead the US and Israelis to escalate to the full shock-and-awe strategy Trump promised to force Vahidi to accept the ceasefire.
The only way that a limited campaign could stay limited would be if it successfully targeted the IRGC junta’s senior leadership. The IDF accomplished that on the first day of the war. Do they know where Vahidi and his commanders are? If they or the US could conduct a single strike that eliminates them, the missiles and drones would fly again, but perhaps Masoud Pezeshkian could seize control quickly enough to restrain the scope and length of those attacks and negotiate a capitulation. Or perhaps an organized opposition could get there first and bring an end to the entire corrupt and evil regime entirely.
Short of that, though, we’d still be in the “little bit pregnant” position.
There is one consideration that might mitigate that risk. The US has had three weeks to replace its missile-defense materiel and resupply our partners. Ukraine has given us a much better approach to anti-drone operations. It’s possible that Trump might feel that we are in a strong enough position with defenses against Vahidi’s responses that he can roll the dice and still keep the exchange limited to a “short and powerful wave.” He can then wait for the dust to clear and see whether the Iranians have had a chance to bring down the regime, without providing Vahidi an opportunity to unify supporters enough to keep propping himself up.
Either way, Trump is clear that the blockade will continue, he told Axios:
The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them. They can’t have a nuclear weapon,” Trump told Axios.
He claimed that Iran wants to reach a deal in order to lift the blockade. “They want to settle. They don’t want me to keep the blockade. I don’t want to [lift the blockade], because I don’t want them to have a nuclear weapon,” Trump added.
The blockade is the real checkmate for Vahidi. We’ll see if Trump needs to knock a few more pieces off the chessboard for that message to get across to Vahidi, and especially those who could supplant him.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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