This is a war, which means that it isn’t over until it’s over. The stakes are high, the incentives to deceive are astronomical, and most information leaks are strategic.
But there is plenty of reason to suspect that this might be the real deal. After all, Trump has been making all sorts of threats that turned out to be empty since the beginning of the “cease-fire,” and has shown no real inclination to restart the war.
And if he won’t follow through on his threats, the only alternative is a climb-down, and that sure looks like what we are getting.
🚨A regional source said all the Arab and Muslim leaders on the call with Trump on Saturday urged him to go ahead with the deal to end the war and de-escalate the situation in the region
🚨”The message from everyone was – please stop the war for the benefit of the whole region”,… https://t.co/Aar6CVQfqe— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) May 23, 2026
🚨A regional source said all the Arab and Muslim leaders on the call with Trump on Saturday urged him to go ahead with the deal to end the war and de-escalate the situation in the region
🚨”The message from everyone was – please stop the war for the benefit of the whole region”, the source said
🚨According to the regional source the negotiations are moving well and the mediators hope to conclude the one-page framework agreement tomorrow and announce it
🚨Then, the mediators want to initiate negotiations on a detailed agreement a few days later, the regional source said
Barak Ravid of Axios seems to have had some of the best intelligence on what has been going on behind the scenes during the conflict, and he is reporting that it is all over but the shouting.
The Trump administration and Iran are close to a deal to end the war, with remaining gaps focused on “wording” of several points, a U.S. official briefed on the negotiations said Saturday.
Why it matters: It’s one of the strongest signals yet that the nearly three-month-old war could be nearing an end.
- The official stressed no final decision has been made by President Trump — and that he could still reject the deal and go for new strikes against Iran.
Reality check: Trump and his advisers thought they were close to a deal several times at earlier stages in the war, but none materialized.
Trump has clearly been anxious to reach a deal, and he wants the war in the rearview mirror as soon as possible. For all the bellicose talk over the past two months, it’s been as clear as day that he really has little appetite for reigniting the conflict.
But…if he ends the war now, on Iran’s terms, it’s hard to see the conclusion as anything but a major loss for Trump and the United States, and the continued existence of an existential threat to Israel.
The latest: Trump held a call on Saturday with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan.
- Two sources briefed on the call said the leaders urged Trump to take the deal. “The message from everyone was – please stop the war for the benefit of the whole region,” one regional source said.
- According to the regional source, the mediators hope to conclude the one-page framework agreement and announce it on Sunday, then initiate negotiations on a detailed agreement within a few days of that announcement.
- Trump is expected to speak on Saturday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an Israeli official said.
- Vice President Vance, who was in Ohio, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who was at West Point, were called back to Washington for a meeting to discuss the deal.
I have been fearing that Trump had lost faith in his ability to coerce Iran into peace terms that would achieve our war aims, and have worried that the cease-fire has enabled Iran to regain its equilibrium and come out the other side in nearly as strong a position, regarding its asymmetrical warfare capabilities, as it began the war with.
During the bombing campaign, Iran was steadily losing its command and control capabilities, access to drones and missiles that were buried underground, and its leadership was having to conduct a war while being chased around the country and acting while in hiding.
The cease-fire allowed them a reset, and they have clearly used it well enough to convince Trump and most Arab leaders that restarting the war would risk too much to make it worthwhile.
The other side: Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said Saturday that Iran and the U.S. were in the final stage of discussions on a memorandum of understanding to end the war.
The spokesperson said the MOU would also deal with gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the U.S. blockade and releasing frozen Iranian funds.
He added that a 30-60 day period of negotiations on a detailed agreement would follow.
It is almost inconceivable that, after a longer cease-fire, Trump would restart hostilities. Maintaining a war-ready posture in the region is incredibly expensive and taxing on our military, and hostilities would be restarting as the midterm campaigns were in full swing.
If a deal without a resolution of the nuclear issue is signed, it will be a political disaster for Trump and an even worse problem for Netanyahu, whose coalition government will likely collapse. Hamas and Hezbollah will be strengthened, and the balance of power in the region will lean more toward Iran than before.
Trump is announcing imminent victory, but I am quite skeptical.
🚨 BREAKING: President Trump announces IRAN DEAL TO BE ANNOUNCED SHORTLY
Strait of Hormuz will OPEN.
HUGE! 🇺🇸
“Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of… pic.twitter.com/QlJtweM6dP
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 23, 2026
🚨 BREAKING: President Trump announces IRAN DEAL TO BE ANNOUNCED SHORTLY
Strait of Hormuz will OPEN.
HUGE! 🇺🇸
“Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.”
“An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed.”
“Separately, I had a call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, which, likewise, went very well.”
Trump lists who participated today:
“I am in the Oval Office at the White House where we just had a very good call with President Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, of The United Arab Emirates, Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, and Minister Ali al-Thawadi, of Qatar, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, of Pakistan, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, of Türkiye, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, of Egypt, King Abdullah II, of Jordan, and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, of Bahrain, concerning the Islamic Republic of Iran, and all things related to a Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE”
I am not a huge fan of Lindsey Graham, but I agree with him that accepting a deal on what will almost certainly be Iranian terms will be a humiliating defeat.
🚨 NOW: Sen. Lindsey Graham is publicly FIRING BACK after hearing about President Trump’s dealmaking call regarding Iran, with Middle Eastern leaders
“If it is perceived in the region that a deal with Iran allows the regime to survive and become more powerful over time, we will… pic.twitter.com/a7SBsQ9BYB
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 23, 2026
🚨 NOW: Sen. Lindsey Graham is publicly FIRING BACK after hearing about President Trump’s dealmaking call regarding Iran, with Middle Eastern leaders
“If it is perceived in the region that a deal with Iran allows the regime to survive and become more powerful over time, we will have poured gasoline on the conflicts in Lebanon and Iraq,” Graham said
“A deal that is perceived to allow Iran to survive and possess the ability to control the Strait in the future will put Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Shia militias in Iraq on steroids.”
“This combination of Iran being perceived as having the ability to terrorize the Strait in perpetuity and the ability the inflict massive damage to Gulf oil infrastructure is a major shift of the balance of power in the region and over time will be a nightmare for Israel.”
“Also, it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with if these perceptions are accurate. I personally am a skeptic of the idea that Iran cannot be denied the ability to terrorize the Strait and the region cannot protect itself against Iranian military capability.”
No final deal, or announcement, has been made yet.
Until the announcements are made and the details sifted through, it’s impossible to make any strong conclusions.
But I fear that Trump is about to admit we lost the war.
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