The site Responsible Statecraft says some kind of deal with Cuba seems to be getting closer, though the U.S. might be running out of time to get the kind of deal it wanted.
Even as U.S. President Donald Trump vows to usher in a “new dawn” for Cuba, possibly through military force, his administration is pursuing high-level diplomatic talks that seem to be producing some concrete results.
Over the weekend, the New York Times and AP confirmed reporting by Axios that a U.S. government plane with a senior State Department delegation landed in Havana on April 10 for direct talks with Cuban officials, as well as a side meeting with Raúl Castro’s grandson, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as “The Crab.” These discussions reportedly addressed prisoner releases, economic reforms, internet connectivity, property claims and political freedoms on the island…
On Monday, in a sign of ongoing law enforcement cooperation between the two countries, a Justice Department plane quietly flew to Havana to recover a minor who the F.B.I. believed to have been kidnapped by a parent to undergo gender transition surgery on the island…
Even with the tough rhetoric from both sides, it appears a comprehensive deal similar to the one RS outlined in February may be taking form…
Rubio and the hardline anti-communist leaders in South Florida’s Cuban-American community that catapulted his rise to power would likely object to any deal that doesn’t require root-and-stem political changes. But the other available options — issuing tighter sanctions, launching a military campaign, or doing nothing at all — are all political minefields for the Trump administration heading into the midterm elections this November.
Trump has said several times that he would be turning his attention to Cuba once the situation in Iran is settled, but the situation in Iran continues to be unsettled. No one seems certain who is calling the shots in Iran. The new leader hasn’t been seen in months and may not even be alive. Trump said today that the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz would go on as long as necessary, but he must know that at some point fairly soon he needs to wrap this up if he hopes to avoid having the war and high gasoline prices become the focus of the midterms.
Of course military involvement in Cuba wouldn’t necessarily take very long and shouldn’t have any impact on prices here in the U.S. but Trump may decide that a negotiation is a better look than another ongoing blockade as the summer wears on. Does anyone really believe democracy is in Cuba’s near future anyway?
It’s hard to imagine it after so many decades of communist dictatorship. Even the left struggles to pretend the current regime has been anything but a failure.
The Cuban model isn’t working, and its allies—China, Russia, and the pragmatic wing of Latin American progressivism—seem to have grown tired of the government’s inertia. Cuba faces an economic embargo, but in a globalized world there are many ways to get around or soften its effects, and the post-Castro regime fronted by President Miguel Diaz-Canel has shown little interest in doing so. The authorities fear that any economic reform would entail a loss of political power, using the embargo to justify the system’s lack of productivity.
The orthodox and authoritarian left in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela has, in many ways, sabotaged and delayed the renewal of the Latin American left. Venezuela has ended up humiliatingly dependent on the Great Power to the north because, with the fraudulent July 2024 elections, it gave the United States the perfect excuse to intervene. The agreement that allowed those elections was promoted not only by the opposition but also by several Latin American leaders negotiating with Washington. Maduro had promised Lula, López Obrador, and Gustavo Petro that he would accept the electoral result, and then he betrayed and exposed his allies. Maduro’s betrayal was seen as proof that Latin Americans could not manage their own region.
So it seems to me we have two processes operating now, both of which will come to a stop sometime soon. One is Cuba’s awful communist regime and the other is Trump’s willingness to spend political capital he doesn’t have months before an important election. I’d love to be wrong about this one, but at this moment it seems like the most likely outcome is some superficial agreement that Cuba will backtrack on the moment Trump leaves office.
Then again, Maduro probably thought the same thing and he’s sitting in prison in Brooklyn. You really never know with Trump.
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