CNN has a new poll of New Hampshire out today which includes some good news for Nikki Haley. She seems to have solidified her position as the not-Trump candidate in the state, cutting his lead to single digits.
Trump still holds a meaningful lead in the poll, with the backing of 39% of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire compared to Haley’s 32%. The rest of the field lags far behind in the poll, with former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 12%, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 5% and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson at less than 1%.
Support for Haley has risen 12 percentage points since the last CNN/UNH poll in November, continuing an upward trajectory that began last summer, while her opponents –- including Trump – have seen their numbers remain stable or tick slightly downward since autumn.
Haley might have a chance to win this primary if Chris Christie weren’t running in the same basic lane. Christie is now under a lot of pressure to drop out.
“Haley would likely move even closer to Trump if former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie were to withdraw, as two-thirds of Christie’s supporters select Haley as their second choice,” the pollster said.
The poll will likely increase pressure on Christie, who has gambled his entire 2024 presidential campaign on the January 23 New Hampshire primary, to drop out of the race.
Christie’s decision to stay in doesn’t make a lot of sense at this point. He has made himself the most vocal anti-Trump candidate in the race but now that he has a chance to deliver an actual win to someone other than Trump he seems determined not to do it.
“Those behind Christie break solidly toward Haley, with 65% saying they would support her were Christie not in the race” https://t.co/tYyLej4DJ7
— Kevin Madden (@KevinMaddenDC) January 9, 2024
By sticking it out, he might come in 3rd in New Hampshire but what good is that if Trump wins? Also, there’s a chance he won’t even come in third. Christie is the least popular candidate in the state, currently 40 points underwater in favorability.
The unpopularity of this GOP field among NH primary voters is really something. From CNN/UNH:
Trump: 47% fav, 38% unfav
Haley: 39% fav, 35% unfav
Vivek: 30% fav, 44%% unfav
DeSantis: 29% fav, 41% unfav
Christie: 20% fav, 60% unfav https://t.co/5yZkQhV2L5— David Weigel (@daveweigel) January 9, 2024
It seems entirely possible a lot of his voters, who presumably are attracted to his anti-Trump message, look at the results of this poll and decide Haley is their best shot. Of course this is just one poll. There’s another poll out from USA Today which found Haley trailing by quite a bit more:
In an exclusive USA TODAY/Boston Globe/Suffolk University Poll, Trump leads Haley in New Hampshire 46%-26%, with former New Jersey governor Chris Christie at 12% and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy in single digits, at 8% and 2%.
The former president’s 20-percentage-point lead is huge, but it’s a significant change from our October poll, when Trump held a 30-point lead over Haley, the former U.N. ambassador. Trump has lost 3 points since then and Haley has gained 7 points − at the expense of DeSantis and Ramaswamy − as she continues to consolidate the not-for-Trump vote.
Based on the USA Today poll, even if Christie were to drop out, it wouldn’t give Haley enough steam to pass Trump. There’s still a little more time for these numbers to change but not a lot. The New Hampshire primary is just two weeks away.