Time for a new pandemic or other crisis, because it’s going to take a lot of rigging to get Joe Biden across the finish line this November.
I’m not making any predictions, mind you. Crises and pandemics can be manufactured on demand these days. It’s not like the MSM is above putting its thumbs on the scales to move the needle.
But according to Gallup, Joe Biden’s reputation among Americans keeps getting worse, while Trump is still doing pretty well.
There is no mystery about why many Americans hate Trump, but I have to say that after the disastrous 3 years of Biden’s presidency I am not sure why Biden’s approval rating exceeds the totals for government employees plus activists. The fact that 39% of people think Biden can manage the government effectively is mind-blowing.
GALLUP: does the following apply to Biden or Trump? (+/- shift since September 2020)
Can manage the government effectively
🟥 Trump 49% (+1)
🟦 Biden 39% (-13)Is likable
🟦 Biden 57% (-9)
🟥 Trump 37% (+1)Displays good judgement in crisis
🟥 Trump 45% (+1)
🟦 Biden 40% (-9)… pic.twitter.com/YtRLGlxowc— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 3, 2024
Still, that 39% is a 13-point drop from where it was in 2020. For some reason, people still find Biden likable, but no accounting for taste….
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Americans are less likely now than they were in 2020 to believe a number of positive personal qualities and characteristics apply to President Joe Biden. The biggest decline has come in the percentage believing Biden is able to manage government effectively, but his scores are down at least six percentage points on each characteristic. Over the same period, public impressions of Donald Trump, Biden’s likely challenger in the 2024 election, haven’t changed to a statically significant degree.
What is striking about these numbers is that Biden has spent years being fluffed by the media, and Trump has been enduring a nonstop barrage both in the media and in courtrooms across America.
The fluffing hasn’t helped, and the barrage against Trump hasn’t hurt. One has to wonder what things would look like if the MSM and the establishment weren’t doing everything they can to control the narrative. Of all the figures they have helped or hurt over the past few years, the biggest victims have been the media themselves.
People–at least a large number of them–have come to see through the smokescreen.
The net effect of the changes in character ratings since 2020 is that Biden has an advantage on two characteristics, Trump has an advantage on two, and the candidates are statistically tied on four others.
- Many more Americans say Biden is likable than say Trump is (57% to 37%), while Biden retains a smaller advantage on being honest and trustworthy (46% to 35%).
- Trump has a big edge on leadership — 57% to 38% — the only item he scored better than Biden on in 2020. Trump has gained a modest edge for managing the government (49% to 39%) because of Biden’s lower 2024 rating on that item.
- The two candidates are evenly matched on two items that were not asked in 2020 — being intelligent and putting the country’s interests ahead of their own political interests. On two others — cares about the needs of people like you (Biden 48%, Trump 42%) and displaying good judgment in a crisis (Trump 45%, Biden 40%) — the differences are not statistically meaningful.
Notably, Biden’s main strength — likability — is one of Trump’s biggest weaknesses, along with perceptions that Trump is honest and trustworthy. Similarly, Trump’s top strength — being a strong and decisive leader — ranks as Biden’s weakest trait.
Trump isn’t likable? Who knew?
Electorally, being a strong leader trumps likability in tough times, and most people think these times are tough. When things are cruising along, likability is a huge deal because in the modern age, the president is in your face every moment of the day. Especially if you are a man like Trump, who generates viewership and clicks.
But in 2024? I doubt likability is going to determine the election. If voters are shrugging off all those ridiculous claims about Trump’s crime and rape sprees, they surely will tolerate mean tweets and nastiness.
Gallup’s analysis of the campaign dynamics strikes me as spot on. Americans aren’t thrilled with their choices, and they will be forced to make a decision between a strong leader who they think manages the government pretty well and a likable doofus who seems to court disaster.
American voters face a choice between two candidates they hold in low regard — they give Biden and Trump weak personal favorability ratings, do not think a series of positive qualities applies to either man, and an elevated three in 10 U.S. adults say neither would make a good president.
Under normal circumstances, the presidential campaign would give the candidates an opportunity to bolster their images for voters. While that still could happen, both Biden and Trump have been national political figures for some time and have well-established images with Americans. Neither Trump nor Biden was popular during his presidency, as evidenced by their generally low job approval ratings.
The 2024 election will differ from the 2020 Trump-Biden contest in one important way: Voters today have significantly less-positive views of Biden overall and of his personal qualities now than four years ago. That might put Biden and Trump on a more level playing field than was the case in 2020. The current election environment could be more similar to 2016, when Trump and Hillary Clinton were the least-liked pair of major-party candidates to face off in an election.
In an environment where outside forces were unable to put their thumbs on the scale, Trump would win this in a walk. But there are major forces arrayed against him, including the Biden Justice Department and corrupt prosecutors who are using maximum effort to disqualify Trump.
Add in ballot harvesting and other shenanigans, making the election far less predictable.
As evidence mounts that actual fraud is taking place in some jurisdictions, and testimony is being provided about shady practices, Americans are less and less inclined to trust the system. If these poll numbers persist into the fall you can rest assured that a Biden victory will generate a lot of outrage.
If Biden barely won when he was relatively well-regarded, a victory with such poor ratings seems implausible.
