Old Mac’s Almanack
Nothing immediately obvious. Which is not to say nothing terribly important. Because this is THE year that will set the course for the next decade if not longer.
Ukraine / Russia. If Russia loses militarily then Putin goes swiftly. If Putin is deposed uncontrollably and goes suddenly, a collapse (swift or slow-mo) will occur in central Russian Govt. Turning in on herself. Riot, political murder, retrenchment. Small wars on borders. Loss of territory to unstable rogue states. Nothing good. Don’t expect Gas or Oil prices to stabilise or drop.
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Russia If Putin dies or is overwhelmed. Collapse – small wars all over the boundaries of the old empire by insurgents trying their luck. Internal struggles for power. Islamic emergence in their Tsarist conquests drawing prison into the old soviet heart. Worry over who holds the nukes! Don’t expect Gas or Oil prices to stabilise or drop.
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Ukraine/Russia truce or treaty. Probably late in the year after each side tries to make best gains in spring and summer. After that the West becomes increasingly worried about fuel/energy security and their own unhappy populations and will abandon Ukraine if they don’t go to the table. Advantage is stability in Russia (even if Putin is removed). But Putin / Russia will have seen that the West is weak and will always bend. What looks like (and will be sold to you as) a triumph will only be a calm before worse storms in the Baltic states, Poland and the black sea near Moldova. But hey your gas prices might be cheaper next winter.
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USA Delay, Stagnation, Drift. Biden under domestic attack for his family’s behaviour. No focus internationally. No leadership and continual questions about POTUS having dementia. Cue videos of daft old fart wandering about on stages and falling over. Dems distracted by finding someone to replace Biden for 2024. Sense of treading water. Republicans wholly distracted finding someone to replace Trump for 2024. The only effective operative limb of govt is the Supreme Court. Watch for the end of affirmative action. That’ll trump Wade v Roe.
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Britain. Will appear like nothing ever happens and same old same old. Conservative party continues in her death throws, unable to achieve anything. This will prove in the next five years or ten years from now genuinely disastrous, but not just yet. All the hoped-for benefits of Brexit (and there were many which were there for the taking) now seem lost. No grip will be achieved on illegal immigration which will run to tens if not hundreds of thousands. Endless photos of fit young men getting off boats and into council paid for hotels whilst locals priced out of markets. Conservative hand wringing and increasingly angry electorates. Expect raised tensions between communities whipped up and breaking down into riot and killings.
No grip on Northern Ireland and EC, leading to further moves to a United Ireland. The Conservative Party will not survive the loss of NI. No grip on the Economy, dead flat and recession and no help to people with prices or power security. Strikes, lower employment, talk of poverty in cities. Despite a coronation and traditional panoply UK now has no friends anywhere in the world. Not for centuries has the country has been so exposed to the raw winds of world economics. No agreements with US nor Europe, No new Commonwealth to reach out either. China and Far east not playing either. Economy overtaken by India and France. Voices in the summer now raised openly to rejoin the EC. Talk of Referendum 2. The previously unspoken complaints grow louder and the Conservatives have no answers. The British Labour party are perpetually left bogged down in electoral stupidities of Woke grandstanding, cycle lanes, Gender politics, pronouns and destruction of Feminist rights etc. A party lost. Politics are in a vacuum. Who will fill the void?
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Europe. Russia has played her cards well, exposing the internal divisions and weaknesses of the EU. Further tensions between eastern bloc of Hungary and Poland and old guard. EU calls for UK to rejoin as both France and Germany want an ally. Oh and No One Wants Scotland.
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Economy. Gold reaches £3000.00 an ounce. Talk of “coming off the dollar” grows stronger. Not implemented this year but now on the horizon.
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Items Way Out There.
The Pope dies. But which one? Benny is 95 so I’m not really sticking my neck out on this!
Someone somewhere decides to tax meat.
OECD will launch a full ban on those pesky Tax havens of Cayman Islands, Bermuda, The Bahamas, Mauritius and the Isle of Man. (Being cowards they will not take on Panama or Switzerland so the exercise will be pointless beyond being lefty and throwing your weight about). But hey those pen pushers need to show they are needed.
A ban means that corporate acquisitions in OECD countries would not be made with capital arriving from tax haven entities. Only monies from OECD countries or countries that adopt OECD transparency standards on capital, would be allowed. Forget investments then eh?
It might be a mad distraction but then everything else is going mad.
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Environment. You can kiss “Net Zero” a goodbye. Green politics and Global Warming, hockey sticks and all given the deep six as the big countries move toward the voting periods of the electoral cycle. If the choice is angry violent revolts by cold hungry citizens or being told off by Greta Scoldilocks, Scoldilocks loses. The coal stations reopen in the west, Nuclear power is sexy again, and the gas is back being drawn from under the sea like there is no tomorrow. Fracking in Yorkshire even if it does shake the house.
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Covid. Sorry? Did you say something? Oh and you’re back to the office or out of a job. Just get on with it.
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