As Jazz pointed out this morning, the Houthis don’t seem to have been dissuaded from attacks on US targets thus far. In the last couple days they have launched attacks on a US commercial vessel and at a US Navy destroyer. Fortunately, the missile aimed at the destroyer was shot down. Today, the US hit another target inside Yemen as the Houthis were preparing another strike.
The strikes on Tuesday were aimed at four missiles that were being prepared to be fired from their launchers and posed an imminent threat to merchant vessels and Navy ships, the command said in a statement…
Residents in the area said on Monday that they saw Houthi missiles being fired from remote and mountainous parts of Mukayras, a Houthi-controlled town in central Yemen, on Friday and Monday…
On Tuesday, the Houthis fired an anti-ship ballistic missile into the Red Sea, hitting the Zografia, a Maltese-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier, a Defense Department official said. The ship’s crew reported no injuries. The vessel remained seaworthy, and continued its journey, the official said.
Here’s an older photo of the Greek ship that was hit today.
⚡️#BREAKING Dry bulk vessel Zografia hit by missile in red sea area, sustains minor damage according to Reuters pic.twitter.com/TLUzUeSX6X
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) January 16, 2024
To be clear, the US strike inside Yemen happened early in the morning local time. The Houthi attack on the Greek ship happened hours later.
U.S. Conducts Strikes in Yemen as Houthi Attacks Against International Shipping Continue
On Jan. 16 at approximately 1:45 p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi militants launched an anti-ship ballistic missile from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen into international… pic.twitter.com/uUCs9qcBPu
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) January 16, 2024
So how long can the Houthis keep this up? The answer to that isn’t clear in part because the US hasn’t been paying much attention to the Houthis until a few months ago. The strikes last week hit dozens of targets and nearly all of those were damaged or destroyed, but overall it was just a fraction of the Houthi’s capabilities.
A top U.S. military officer, Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims, the director of the military’s Joint Staff, said on Friday that the strikes had achieved their objective of damaging the Houthis’ ability to launch the kind of complex drone and missile attack they had conducted on Tuesday.
But the two U.S. officials cautioned on Saturday that even after hitting more than 60 missile and drone targets with more than 150 precision-guided munitions, the strikes had damaged or destroyed only about 20 to 30 percent of the Houthis’ offensive capability, much of which is mounted on mobile platforms and can be readily moved or hidden…
Finding Houthi targets is proving to be more challenging than anticipated. American and other Western intelligence agencies have not spent significant time or resources in recent years collecting data on the location of Houthi air defenses, command hubs, munitions depots and storage and production facilities for drones and missiles, the officials said.
Officially, all of these attacks on shipping by the Houthis are designed to prevent supplies from making their way to Israel, but obviously attacking a US destroyer goes well beyond that. There was a report yesterday that Iran’s IRGC is on the ground in Yemen helping them prepare attacks.
Commanders and advisors from Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are on the ground in Yemen and playing a direct role in Houthi rebel attacks on commercial traffic in the Red Sea.
The IRGC has stationed missile and drone trainers and operators in Yemen, as well as personnel providing tactical intelligence support to the Houthis, U.S. and Middle East officials told Semafor. The IRGC, through its overseas Qods Force, has also overseen the transfer to the Houthis of the attack drones, cruise missiles, and medium-range ballistic missiles used in a string of strikes on Red Sea and Israeli targets in recent weeks, these officials said.
So, as usual, Iran is directly involved in stirring up trouble in the region but always in a way that removes them from any direct responsibility. Still, it’s very likely the IRGC is whispering in the Houthi’s ears about the need to attack US ships. And it appears this will continue to happen until we’ve degraded their ability to launch attacks. That could take many more US strikes beyond the ones we’ve seen so far.