The title question is one that is being both asked and answered at National Review this week by Audrey Fahlberg and Brittany Bernstein. As most of you know, abortion is sucking up most of the headlines in the legacy media at the moment despite there being no significant federal legislation or pending Supreme Court cases addressing the topic. That’s because the Democrats are running on abortion for this year’s elections, lacking any other positive achievements to point to. But what about Donald Trump? He hasn’t been quiet on the subject, but his current position isn’t making many people in the staunchly pro-life movement happy. He is being decried by some of his former supporters for a number of comments he’s recently made. But will that cost him at the polls in November? National Review suggests that it potentially could, but when you pull back the lens a bit, it seems unlikely.
The relationship between Donald Trump and the pro-life movement has been on shaky ground for a while now: The former president blamed pro-lifers for Republicans’ lackluster showing in the midterms and then refused to stake out a firm position on the issue during the GOP primary. But what began as coded, quiet bickering between Trump world and pro-life organizations, with both sides trying to avoid entirely alienating the other, exploded into full public view earlier this week as Trump declined to endorse federal abortion restrictions, only to follow up days later by saying the Arizona supreme court went too far in upholding a law that bans nearly all abortions.
“Yeah they did,” Trump told reporters at an airport in Georgia earlier today when asked if the Arizona supreme court ruling went “too far.” “That’ll be straightened out, and as you know it’s all about states’ rights.”
Also on Wednesday, Trump again took credit for helping overturn Roe v. Wade but said he would decline to sign a federal abortion ban if he wins in November.
Trump’s position on abortion is fairly basic and it’s one that has been enthusiastically pushed forward by conservative analysts who are fighting to ensure that the GOP doesn’t suffer yet another embarrassing loss to the most unpopular president of the modern era. The Supreme Court returned the abortion question to the states and that is where it belongs. Trump is taking credit for placing several of the justices that overturned Roe, which is what the pro-life crowd claimed they wanted for decades. Now he’s ready to move on and let the Constitution serve as our guide. The disconnect on display from the people currently criticizing Trump over this was nicely framed by one of the people I follow on Twitter.
Roe v Wade was overturned because abortion is not a federal matter. Decades were spent arguing this by pro-life activists and they finally won the argument.
Now you toss all of that aside?
There is no federal power to be used unless you get a constitutional amendment. https://t.co/7U7sslpgqT
— FilmLadd (@FilmLadd) April 11, 2024
It’s not as if Donald Trump is out there on the campaign trail encouraging everyone to send money to Planned Parenthood or arguing to reinstate Roe. He is saying that the Arizona ruling “went too far” because it doesn’t include some exceptions to abortion bans involving the life of the mother, as most successful laws currently do. He is refusing to get behind a blanket ban at seven weeks because that is where a strong majority of the country comes down on the subject. A similarly strong majority opposes abortions in the third trimester and Trump is obviously aware of this.
Still, the criticism continues to pour in. Lila Rose, the president of Live Action, went so far as to say that Donald Trump is “not a pro-life candidate.” Other anti-abortion advocates are warning that this position might cost Trump some pro-life votes in November. But will it really? The alternative to Trump is Biden, who is currently running so hard to the left that he’ll probably endorse “abortions” after the baby is born alive and well before very long. Even Lila Rose was compelled to temper her statement by saying that Trump is “far less pro-abortion than Biden.”
Even as important as this issue will be in November, in the end, all Donald Trump has to do is precisely that – be less pro-abortion (or more pro-life) than Biden. That position, combined with Biden’s disastrous numbers on nearly every other issue, should keep the pro-life and evangelical voters in the corral this November. I will never underestimate the GOP’s ability to screw up a soup sandwich, but at least for now, Trump appears to have settled on a winning strategy when it comes to the abortion question. And, as noted above, that’s just about all the Democrats have to run on at the moment.