Over at Townhall, our colleague Cal Thomas asks the question, “Is it over?” He’s speaking of the 2024 Republican primary, of course. It’s still too early to say with any certainty, even after Donald Trump’s record-setting victory in Iowa. But there might be another nail in the coffin now that the latest Saint Anselm College poll of New Hampshire voters taken after Iowa has been released. Trump was already doing well in New Hampshire, but with the first caucus of the season now in the books, his lead has only widened. Nikki Haley’s heavy investment in the Granite State seems to have paid off to a reasonable degree, but Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has all but disappeared off the radar. And the clock is already ticking down to Super Tuesday. (NY Post)
Former President Donald Trump leads former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by double-digits in the New Hampshire primary, according to a poll released Wednesday, which also shows Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with only single-digit support in the Granite State.
The Saint Anselm College poll was conducted after Trump’s landslide victory in Monday’s Iowa Caucus and factors in the recent departure of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy from the 2024 campaign trail.
The Siena survey was the second poll released on Wednesday that showed the 77-year-old former president maintaining a double-digit edge over Haley in New Hampshire.
The first thing to note about this poll is that the results don’t automatically translate into some unexpected rush to back Donald Trump based on his performance in Iowa. The poll removed all of the people who had dropped out, including Ramaswamy and Christie, so voters had fewer people to pick from. But even taking that into account, Trump still did very well. The former president saw a seven-point increase from the previous week, putting him at 52%. Haley also saw a similar increase to 38%.
Conversely, almost nobody migrated to the camp of Ron DeSantis. He remained stuck at 6%. So at least in New Hampshire, this is looking more and more like a two-person race. But among voters who said that they had previously backed one of the now-departed candidates, Haley did manage to do slightly better than Trump, with 60% moving toward her.
That sort of advantage still doesn’t appear to be enough momentum to make Haley all that competitive, however. Those gains don’t change the fact that Donald Trump is back above 50%. And even in a two-person race, that’s unbeatable. Of course, that assumes that the poll numbers are rock solid. But even accounting for the 4% margin of error estimated by the pollsters, that still wouldn’t get Haley much above 40.
Haley’s supporters can take some comfort from the fact that roughly half of the movement as the field thins is going in her direction. That could make the final legs of the race more competitive than I would have originally guessed. We’re still very early in the game, but with this much of a disparity, she really needs to start showing some movement if she’s truly in it to win it. The week after New Hampshire, the race moves to her home state of South Carolina. That last poll taken there showed Trump leading her 54-25. Granted, that survey is two weeks old and there were more candidates being offered, but that’s still a rather daunting gap to overcome. And a loss in her own state would not leave her looking all that competitive.
As for Ron DeSantis, as much as I admire his record in Florida and believe he is well-qualified for the office, I’m starting to wonder how much longer he will hang around and if his donors will continue to support his campaign. He’s polling in single digits in both New Hampshire and South Carolina. Trump even holds a daunting lead over him in Florida. If he runs up three or four single-digit finishes in a row, I suspect he’ll be eyeing the exits. But then again, we’re talking about Republican politics in the rawest form. Anything can still happen overnight, at least in theory.