Not. Gonna. Happen.
But Donald Trump’s inclusion of Ron DeSantis on his Veepstakes shortlist qualifies as a gracious gesture to promote unity. With the demolition of Nikki Haley scheduled to take place in her home state in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, both Trump and the media have begun looking at the presumed nominee’s next big decision.
Laura Ingraham broached the subject last night at a town hall event on Fox News:
WATCH: Trump hints at possible VP picks pic.twitter.com/6Xhy8AV2Xf
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) February 21, 2024
During a Fox News town hall event, host Laura Ingraham asked Trump about six possible choices for his running mate: DeSantis, Scott, biotech entrepreneur and former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, Florida Rep. Byron Donalds, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and Gabbard.
“Are they all on your shortlist?” she asked.
“They are,” Trump said, before adding: “Honestly all of those people are good. They’re all good, they’re all solid.”
Trump is correct about the impact of the decision on the election. Back when regional factions mattered more, nominees chose running mates for “balance” more than other considerations, to engage key geographic constituencies. Nowadays, ideological factions matter much more, and that may be especially true in this cycle with both parties. Trump as a populist might consider a more traditional conservative to pull the party together; Biden did the same thing in reverse four years ago by adding progressive Kamala Harris to balance out Biden’s supposedly moderate position. (Ha.)
By that philosophy, Trump could always pick Mike Pence again. Kidding! I kid, I kid …
But again, Trump grasps that this is more about demonstrating good judgment than it is about any real electoral boost. That’s another reason to promote DeSantis, who has been a very successful governor, on the public shortlist. DeSantis will likely offer a gracious and ambiguous demurral if anyone asks about it. He has more to do as governor over the next three years than he can achieve as second banana on the ticket and then in the White House. DeSantis will want to cut his own path rather than tie himself too closely to Trump and aim at being a change candidate in 2028 or 2032. And frankly, I doubt that Trump will want to share that much of a spotlight with an up-and-comer, especially when he’d start his term as a lame duck.
So who else will fit the bill for Trump? If Trump wants to be taken seriously, you can skip Ramaswamy and Gabbard. They’re stunt candidates, neither of whom had any success as candidates in previous presidential cycles, and don’t have a large constituency to bring to the table. Byron Donalds is a more serious contender, but he’s only won a couple of terms in the House in an R+13 district that went for Trump 60/40 over Biden in 2020 already. (Also, the Constitution bars running mates from the same state, and Donalds isn’t valuable enough in this role for Trump to re-home himself elsewhere.)
Trump singled out Tim Scott, who would add more personal appeal to the ticket. Scott’s primary bid never took off either, but he’s great on the stump and well-versed in Washington DC after winning two state-wide Senate elections in South Carolina. Trump wants to expand his appeal to black voters, and Scott can certainly open those doors too. Mostly, Scott is someone who would be a committed surrogate for the MAGA agenda.
However, if Trump wants to address balance in the election, he may want to put a woman on the ticket. Republicans have an expanding gender gap in elections, and Trump makes it worse rather than better. Kristi Noem makes a lot of sense for Trump as a running mate; she’s a governor, already aligned with the MAGA faction, and even provides better geographical balance to the ticket. Noem never ran against Trump either, which makes it less awkward for a partnership (especially with Trump), and is just as good on the stump, albeit in a more traditional style.
Ingraham left one candidate out, though: Nikki Haley. She’s about to get humiliated in her own home state and will have to start thinking about her next moves in politics. Trump is tearing into Haley right now, but she’s not backing down, and I’d bet that Trump appreciates that — as much as his team complains about her extending the fight unnecessarily. Haley did Trump a lot of favors in the debates by ripping DeSantis and slowing down the potentially biggest threat to his renomination. Trump might want to harness that fight for his own benefit and sic Haley on Biden and Harris. And that would also provide some ideological connection between the GOP’s factions, even if Trump’s supporters might blanch at the idea at first.
Don’t expect an answer soon, though. Trump doesn’t need to make this decision now. He could wait until the convention and force the candidates to kiss the ring for a while first, and likely will. That in itself will be instructive to watch.